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Yes, most economic indicators are seasonally adjusted. But the statistical issue, given how harsh this winter has been, is how much do data deviate from typical seasonal patterns. However, some recent economic news indicates a leveling off in the harsh weather effect.
 Stocks rose moderately strong this week on M&A activity, expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for quite some time, and on belief that much of the weakness in economic data is weather related and temporary. Gains came despite worries about political discord in Ukraine.
Stocks rose Monday on M&A activity as RF Micro Devices agreed to buy TriQuint Semiconductor while Men's Wearhouse raised its cash offer for Jos. A. Bank Clothiers. Equities dipped Tuesday on slower growth—although still positive—in home prices. Consumer confidence came in somewhat weaker than expected.
 Equities were mostly up at mid-week due to an unexpected spike in new home sales. The consumer sector was seen as improving as retailer stocks gained notably. Despite worries about Russian intervention in Ukraine, stocks rose Thursday, largely on the backs of techs and retailers again. Tech shares, including Apple, helped lead the advance. Retailers gained with the shares of both JC Penney and Best Buy jumping after the companies posted strong results. Late Wednesday, JC Penney forecast more improvement in its comparable sales and gross profit margin this fiscal year. Also on Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s weather delayed testimony before the Senate indicated that, despite continued taper, loose policy rates will continue. On Friday, the S&P 500 ended at a record close despite more implied threats from Russia to Ukraine. Lift largely continued from Yellen’s testimony the day before.
Equities were up this past week. The Dow was up 1.4 percent; the S&P 500, up 1.3 percent; the Nasdaq, up 1.0 percent; the Russell 2000, up 1.6 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, up 1.3 percent.
Equities were up for February net. The Dow was up 4.0 percent; the S&P 500, up 4.3 percent; the Nasdaq, up 5.0 percent; the Russell 2000, up 4.6 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, up 4.4 percent.
For the year-to-date, major indexes are mixed as follows: the Dow, down 1.5 percent; the S&P 500, up 0.6 percent; the Nasdaq, up 3.1 percent; the Russell 2000, up 1.7 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, up 1.2 percent.
Weekly percent change column reflects percent changes for all components except interest rates. Interest rate changes are reflected in simple differences.
 Treasury yields generally were down moderately for the week. After little change on Monday, rates eased somewhat Tuesday on weaker-than-expected consumer confidence. Also, investors sought to cover short positions ahead of this past week’s auctions.
On Wednesday rates eased further on bets that the economy was slowing with weather just being noise in the data. Thursday, yields slipped further on flight to safety due to turmoil in Ukraine. Also, initial jobless claims were a little higher than expected. At week’s end, positive economic news was seen with the Chicago PMI and pending home sales, nudging rates up marginally. However, flight to safety was still an issue regarding Ukraine.
For this past week Treasury rates were mixed but mostly down as follows: 3-month T-bill, up 2 basis points; the 2-year note, up 1 basis point; the 5-year note, down 3 basis points; the 7-year note, down 6 basis points; the 10-year note, down 8 basis points; and the 30-year bond, down 12 basis points.
 The spot price of West Texas Intermediate was flat for the week.
Crude rose about half a dollar Monday on speculation that inventories fell last week. The mood switched Tuesday on belief that inventories gained, resulting in about an 80 cent dip in price. There also was belief that a declining Chinese yuan will slow growth in China.
On Wednesday, spot WTI rose about half a dollar on news that supply dipped at Cushing, Oklahoma. Prices were little changed Thursday and Friday.
Net for the week, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate nudged up 21 cents per barrel to settle at $102.46.
Despite adverse weather softening recent economic data, there are some underlying signs of improvement. However, the fourth quarter was not as healthy as earlier believed and the first quarter will still be impacted by weather.
 Real GDP growth for the fourth quarter was revised down sharply to an annualized 2.4 percent from the advance estimate of 3.2 percent and compared to the third quarter’s 4.1 percent. However, the latest number posted right next to the consensus number of 2.5 percent.
Final sales of domestic product were revised down to 2.3 percent from the advance estimate of 2.8 percent and compared to third quarter’s 2.5 percent. Final sales to domestic purchasers were revised down to 1.2 percent from the advance estimate of 1.4 percent and compared to third quarter’s 2.3 percent.
By components, downward revisions were seen in PCEs, inventory investment, net exports, and government purchases. Nonresidential fixed investment was revised up.
The overall price index was bumped up to 1.6 percent from 1.3 percent. Third quarter growth was 2.0 percent. The revised Q4 number topped expectations for 1.3 percent. Core chain prices rose 1.9 percent, up from advance Q4 of 1.7 percent but matching the third quarter.
Overall, the economy was not as strong in the fourth quarter as earlier believed. However, the downward revision was well anticipated. With weather related issues, talk will be about first quarter growth improving or not from the lower benchmark of the fourth quarter.
 It clearly is difficult to decide how strong or not housing is with recent monthly data. And homebuilders apparently were more aggressive with sales recently than existing homeowners.
In a wild seesaw, new home sales surged a monthly 9.6 percent in January to 468,000 for the strongest annual rate since July 2008. The rate was far beyond the high-end Econoday estimate of 426,000. In a further positive, December was revised upward by 13,000 to a 427,000 rate.
January's data showed a big monthly 10.4 percent gain in the South which is by far the largest region for new home sales. The West, which is a distant second behind the South, showed an 11.0 percent gain.
The big rise in sales brought down supply relative to sales, to 4.7 months versus December's 5.2 months. Lack of available homes has been limiting sales and now looks to further limit sales.
The median price was down 2.2 percent to $260,100. The year-on-year sales gain, which spent most of last year in the double digits, is now modest, at 3.4 percent and in line with the 2.2 year-on-year gain for sales.
January's heavy weather did not hold down new home sales as it did sales of existing homes. The latest new home sales report, despite the wild monthly swings, offers rare good news on the housing market.
 Another positive in housing—or maybe non-negative—was the most recent pending home sales report.
For the first time since mid-year last year and despite January's unusual cold, the pending home sales index showed a gain, but not much of a gain at 0.1 percent to 95.0. Another plus is an upward revision to December, from severe contraction of minus 8.7 percent for the initial reading to minus 5.8 percent.
A negative in the report was deepening contraction in the year-on-year rate, at minus 9.0 percent in January versus minus 6.3 percent in December.
Regional indications were mixed with the West and Midwest showing monthly declines while the Northeast and South showed gains. Note that the South is showing the most strength by far and, at 111.2, is the only region with a plus-100 reading.
This is another sign that housing may be stabilizing although the National Association of Realtors continues to state that limited supply is holding down sales.
Limited supply, worries about potentially rising mortgage rates, and decent demand continue to put moderate upward pressure on home prices.
 Home prices, according to the FHFA, rebounded 0.8 percent in December after easing 0.1 percent the month before. But excluding some monthly volatility, the trend definitely has been upward. Prices have risen on a quarterly basis for 10 quarters in a row. The December increase topped expectations for a 0.3 percent monthly boost.
Five Census divisions posted increases, one was flat, and two declined.
On a year-ago basis, FHFA home prices for the U.S. were up 7.7 percent versus 7.3 percent in November. Rising home prices have helped support consumer confidence as home equity is returning, albeit moderately. The FHFA index is based only on mortgages sold through or bundled by federal housing agencies.
The broader measure of home prices—Case-Shiller—also showed improvement.  Home price appreciation was solid in December but a bit slower than prior months. Case-Shiller's 20-city index for the month rose an adjusted 0.8 percent, down from gains of 0.9 percent and 1.1 percent in the prior two months for the slowest rate of increase since July. The year-on-year rate is very strong but is also slowing, at plus 13.5 percent vs 13.8 and 13.6 percent in November and October.
Data for individual cities show sweeping gains though, for the first time in five months, a negative sign appears and that's for Cleveland where December home prices slipped 0.2 percent. Gains continue to be very strong in Florida and in the West. Detroit, at plus 1.1 percent, shows a 4th straight strong gain.
 Manufacturing has been in the doldrums in recent months with a notably negative number for the manufacturing component in industrial production for January. But manufacturing may be improving in the short term according to core durables orders.
Despite bad weather, there are signs of improvement in manufacturing—after looking beyond a negative headline number. New factory orders for durables in January decreased 1.0 percent, following a drop of 5.3 percent in December.
The transportation component fell a monthly 5.6 percent after plunging 12.0 percent in December. However, other components were more positive. Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 1.1 percent in January after falling 1.9 percent the month before.
Outside of transportation, orders were up notably for fabricated metals and computer products. These were partially offset by smaller declines for primary metals, machinery, electrical equipment, and other durable goods.
There was improvement in investment plans. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 1.7 percent, following 1.8 percent decline in December. Shipments for this series slipped 0.8 percent in January, following a 0.3 percent increase in December.
The latest durables report points to improved manufacturing activity at the core in coming months. However, shipments are suggesting a soft first quarter so far.
 Atypically harsh winter weather has weighed on regional Fed manufacturing surveys.
Texas factory activity increased for the 10th month in a row in February. The Dallas Fed’s production index rose from 7.1 to 10.8, indicating output grew at a slightly stronger pace than in January.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected a pick up. The shipments index rose again in February, coming in at 13.3. The new orders index continued to indicate demand growth and was 9.5, down from 14.4 in January but above the levels seen toward the end of last year.
Perceptions of broader business conditions were not as positive this month as they were in January. The general business activity index fell to 0.3 after eight positive readings in a row. The company outlook index also declined, from 15.9 to 3.4, hitting its lowest reading since last spring.
The Richmond Fed’s composite index was the weakest of regions, coming in at minus 6 versus January's plus 12. Weakness swept the report including new orders, at minus 9 versus plus 14 in January, and backlog orders where contraction steepened to minus 8 vs minus 2. Shipments were also in negative ground as was capacity utilization and the workweek. Inventories are on the rise, the result of weak shipments, while employment is at zero for a second month.
 Growth in Kansas City Fed District manufacturing activity was slightly positive in February, and although producers' expectations moderated somewhat, they remained at solid levels overall. Several contacts continued to cite delays and slowdowns caused by severe winter weather issues.
The month-over-month composite index was 4 in February, similar to the reading of 5 in January and up from minus 3 in December. Other month-over-month indexes were mixed. The production index jumped from minus 8 to plus 3, and the shipments index also climbed higher. The order backlog and employment indexes decreased slightly, while the new orders index was unchanged.
February's heavy weather appears to have held back the services sector. Markit Economic's flash services index for business activity was down sharply, to 52.7 from January's 56.7. The latest reading signaled the slowest rate of monthly growth since the government shutdown of October. Monthly growth in employment slowed noticeably month, down 2.1 points to a soft 52.0 with business expectations also coming down, to a still very strong 74.0 but down nearly 7 points from January. New business remains strong, down only fractionally at 56.2.
 There is more strength than meets the eye in February's consumer confidence report where a 1.3 point dip in the composite index to a lower-than-expected 78.1 masks solid improvement in the consumer's assessment of the present situation.
The present situation component rose 4.4 points to 81.7 which is the highest level of the whole recovery, going back to April 2008. The gain is a positive indication, heavy weather or not, for consumer activity in February.
Weakness in the report is centered in expectations, a more abstract assessment than the present situation where the index fell 5.1 points to 75.7. This index had been jumping the last couple of months following the government shutdown.
Turning to the Reuters/University of Michigan report, consumer sentiment has held steady through this winter's heavy weather. The composite index for February was 81.6, little changed from the 81.2 readings for both mid-month February and final January. The current conditions component, which offers an indication on monthly consumer activity, was slightly lower, at 95.4 versus January's 96.8. The expectations component is slightly higher, at 72.7 for February vs 71.2 for January.
Both reports on the consumer mood point to consumer resilience, perhaps setting up a bounce higher in the consumer sector when temperatures warm back up from atypically harsh winter weather.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivered her weather delayed testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. Her prepared remarks were almost the same as those before the House of Representative’s Financial Services Committee on February 11. However, she did say that the impact of the winter’s harsh weather needs to be weighed. Ms. Yellen reiterated that the reduction in bond purchases was likely to continue at a measured pace. She reiterated that the Fed’s stance is not on a set course, and if there is a "significant" change in the economic outlook, the Fed would be open to changing its policy.
Ms. Yellen noted that the fed funds rate is likely to remain low even after the unemployment rate declines below 6.5 percent. She said that low inflation allows the Fed to promote full employment with continued accommodative monetary policy for quite some time. Regarding a question of the impact of restrictive fiscal policy, Ms. Yellen noted that fiscal policy has cut into economic growth. She agrees with her predecessor that in the long run, fiscal policy should be balanced but in the short run do no harm to the economy.
It continues to be the recent story—atypically adverse weather has weighed on economic data. However, there are some modestly positive signs in manufacturing, housing, and consumer sectors. A spring thaw (even after seasonally adjusted) could boost the data notably.
The consumer and manufacturing sectors are in the spotlight. After two disappointing employment situations, Friday’s employment report will get extra attention. Also, motor vehicle sales have stalled along with personal income—updates post on Monday. Core durables orders showed signs of life for January and we get readings for February manufacturing from Markit PMI and ISM.
Sales of total light motor vehicles fell only slightly in January, to a 15.2 million annual rate versus 15.4 million in December—translating into a 1.0 percent dip after a December decline of 6.2 percent. The recent peak in total sales was in November at a 16.4 million unit pace and a 7.7 percent jump. Weakness in January was centered in imports, especially import cars where the rate fell to 2.2 million from 2.5 million. On the positive side, total sales of North American-made vehicles, boosted by strength in light trucks, rose to 12.1 million from 11.9 million.
Motor vehicle domestic sales Consensus Forecast for February 14: 12.3 million-unit rate
Range: 12.0 to 12.4 million-unit rate
Motor vehicle total sales Consensus Forecast for February 14: 15.4 million-unit rate
Range: 15.0 to 15.7 million-unit rate
Personal income was flat in December while spending was up. Income sluggishness may have been weather related. Personal income was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in November. The wages & salaries component posted flat in December, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Personal spending, however, was moderately strong, rising 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent boost in November. Spending was led by a 1.5 percent jump in nondurables with services gaining 0.4 percent. Durables declined 1.8 percent after a 1.8 percent increase the month before. Headline inflation warmed a bit with a reading of 0.2 percent after no change in November. Excluding food and energy, PCE price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in December, matching the November pace. On a year ago basis, headline inflation was 1.1 percent in December versus 0.9 percent the month before. Core inflation nudged up to 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent. The year ago numbers are still well below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent inflation.
Personal income Consensus Forecast for January 14: +0.2 percent
Range: 0.0 to +0.4 percent
Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for January 14: +0.1 percent
Range: 0.0 to +0.3 percent
PCE price index Consensus Forecast for January 14: +0.1 percent
Range: +0.1 to +0.2 percent
Core PCE price index Consensus Forecast for January 14: +0.1 percent
Range: +0.1 to +0.2 percent
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey signaled very significant slowing in composite growth for January, at 51.3 for a sharp 5.2 point decline from December. This was the lowest reading since May 2013 and the sharpest monthly drop since May 2011. The bad news was centered, unfortunately, in new orders which were down a very steep 13.2 points to 51.2. This is one of the largest monthly declines on record. If there is solace, it's that the plus-50 rate of 51.3 rate still points to monthly growth, just at a much slower pace than December.
ISM manufacturing composite index Consensus Forecast for February 14: 51.9
Range: 49.5 to 53.2
Construction spending eased in December but housing was strong-in contrast to recent sales numbers. Total outlays edged up 0.1 percent after a 0.8 percent boost in November. Strength was in private residential outlays which jumped 2.6 percent in December, following a 1.1 percent rise the month before. By subcomponents, new one-family outlays gained 3.4 percent in December, new multifamily rose 0.5 percent, and ex-new homes increased 2.0 percent in December. Private nonresidential construction spending dipped 0.7 percent but followed a strong 2.4 percent in November. Public outlays fell 2.3 percent after a 1.4 percent decline in November.
Construction spending Consensus Forecast for January 14: -0.2 percent
Range: -1.5 to +0.4 percent
ADP private payroll employment rose by 175,000 in January. The comparable BLS number for January was 142,000..
ADP private payrolls Consensus Forecast for February 14: 150,000
Range: 100,000 to 192,000
The Markit PMI services index in January accelerated to a very solid 56.7 versus 55.7 in December. Business expectations were especially strong, at 80.8 for a 2.1 point gain and a 3-year high. Another sign of strength came from price readings which showed moderate upward pressure. Other details showed less strength including new business, down 1.5 points to 56.4, and outstanding business, down 2.2 points to 49.3. Employment slowed 1.1 points to 54.1.
No consensus numbers are available for this month’s report
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey picked back up in January, up 1.0 point to 54.0 for the composite index. The component for business activity rose 2 points to 56.3 which, again, despite the heavy weather, pointed to monthly acceleration for services output. A down note in the report was only slight monthly growth for new orders which inched 1/2 point higher to 50.9. Other order readings are soft as well with backlogs still in contraction but just barely, at 49.0.
The Beige Book being prepared for the March 18-19 FOMC meeting is released this afternoon. After weather-battered data in January and February, traders will be looking to see any signs of improvement in the recovery.
Initial jobless claims did not point to any improvement in the labor market with initial claims up 14,000 in the February 22 week to a 348,000 level. The 4-week average was unchanged at 338,250 which was slightly higher than the month-ago trend in a reading that points to no improvement for the monthly employment report. Continuing claims tell mostly the same story, up 8,000 in data for the February 15 week to 2.964 million. But the 4-week average, at 2.955 million, was a bit lower than the month-ago comparison.
Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 3/1/14:338,000
Range: 330,000 to 350,000
Nonfarm business productivity in the fourth quarter remained healthy, posting at an annualized gain of 3.2 percent after a 3.6 percent boost the prior quarter. Unit labor costs declined an annualized 1.6 percent, following a decrease of 2.0 percent in the third quarter. The rise in productivity reflected a 4.9 percent jump in non-farm output, following a jump of 5.4 percent in the third quarter. Hours worked grew 1.7 percent in both the fourth and third quarters. Compensation eased to a 1.5 percent pace after rising 1.6 percent in the third quarter.
Nonfarm Business Productivity Consensus Forecast for revised Q4 13: +2.4 percent annual rate
Range: +1.7 to +2.9 percent annual rate
Unit Labor Costs Consensus Forecast for revised Q4 13: -0.5 percent annual rate
Range: -1.3 to 0.0 percent annual rate
Factory orders for December fell 1.5 percent but the ex-transportation reading, which excludes aircraft, was actually up 0.2 percent, which compares with 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent gains in the prior two months. But there was definitely weakness in the report including durable goods orders which fell 4.2 percent. More recently, new factory orders for durables in January decreased 1.0 percent, following a drop of 5.3 percent in December. Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 1.1 percent in January after falling 1.9 percent the month before.
Factory orders Consensus Forecast for January 14: -0.5 percent
Range: -1.6 to +1.0 percent
Nonfarm payroll employment in January rose 113,000, following a revised increase of 75,000 for December and after a revised rise of 274,000 for November. The net revisions for November and December were up 34,000. Private payrolls advanced 142,000 after rising 89,000 in December. The household portion of the employment report was more positive. The unemployment rate slipped to 6.6 percent from 6.7 percent in December. This is the lowest unemployment rate in five years. The labor force actually rebounded a sharp 523,000 in January after dropping 347,000 the month before. Household employment spiked 638,000, following a 143,000 rise in December. The household survey has a much smaller sample size than the payroll survey and is more volatile on a monthly basis. If the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent, it could affect guidance in the Fed’s March FOMC statement.
Nonfarm payrolls Consensus Forecast for February 14: 150,000
Range: 80,000 to 203,000
Private payrolls Consensus Forecast for February 14: 165,000
Range: 100,000 to 200,000
Unemployment rate Consensus Forecast for February 14: 6.6 percent
Range: 6.4 to 6.7 percent
Average workweek Consensus Forecast for February 14: 34.4 hours
Range: 34.3 to 34.5 hours
Average hourly earnings Consensus Forecast for February 14: +0.2 percent
Range: +0.1 to +0.2 percent
The U.S. international trade gap in December widened to $38.7 billion from $34.6 billion in November. Exports declined 1.8 percent in December, following a gain of 0.8 percent the month before. Imports edged up 0.3 percent after dropping 1.3 percent. The expansion of the trade gap was led by goods excluding petroleum which jumped to $42.0 billion from $37.9 billion in November. The petroleum deficit worsened slightly to $15.6 billion from $15.3 billion in November. The services surplus improved to $19.8 billion from $19.5 billion. Nonetheless, the overall trade gap was relatively low.
International trade balance Consensus Forecast for January 14: -$39.0 billion
Range: -$40.6 billion to -$36.0 billion
Consumer credit outstanding surged $18.8 billion in December and included a very large $5.0 billion rise for revolving credit. The revolving credit component has been mostly flat this recovery but the December gain is the largest since May and the 3rd largest rise of the whole recovery. Up $13.8 billion, the non-revolving component continues to be driven by the government's acquisition of student loans. But the gain here also reflects the solid pace of motor vehicle sales.
Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for January 14: +$14.0 billion
Range: +$8.0 billion to +$15.3 billion
R. Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books.
He can also be found on a weekly broadcast talking about the U.S. economy, the easiest way to find him is by going to iTunes and searching for "Simply Economics."
Econoday Senior Writer Mark Pender contributed to this article.
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