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The year 2019 will not be remembered for economic growth which has been held back by significant weakness in manufacturing, a sector that is being hurt by lack of growth if not contraction underway in net global trade. But the year will be remembered for its wide ranging rate cuts, beginning in India and Australia and eventually extending to the US and, at least marginally, to the European Central Bank as well. Central banks, however, have been stepping back as the year winds down to see how much improvement prior cuts will provide. And Christine Lagarde, who takes her place on the global economic stage, sounded a little less dovish than billed, as we shall see.
 There were no surprises in the ECB's December policy statement. Forward guidance was left unchanged as were key interest rates: refi rate 0.00 percent, deposit and marginal lending rates minus 0.50 percent and plus 0.25 percent respectively. The Governing Council still expects official rates "to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2 percent within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics". Quantitative easing was also held unchanged, at an open-ended €20 billion per month. Monthly net purchases are expected to run for as long as necessary and to end shortly before the central bank starts raising key rates. Similarly unmodified, the policy for principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme (APP) is reinvestment in full and for an extended period of time past the date when official rates are hiked.
In her press briefing, ECB chief Lagarde pointed to some tentative signs that the European economy may be starting to pick up a little steam and she noted acceleration underway in underlying inflation (up 2 tenths to a 4-year high of 1.3 percent, in data for November released last month). And though economic risks are still seen titled to the downside, they may be a bit less markedly than before. Even so, the ECB's updated economic forecasts continue to paint a generally subdued picture of Eurozone growth and inflation. Real GDP is now seen expanding 1.2 percent this year, versus an October projection of 1.1 percent, and only 1.1 percent in 2020 which is also down 1 tenth from October. The new inflation profile is similarly little changed: annual change in the HICP is put at 1.1 percent next year going out to 1.7 percent at the end of 2022. In other words, inflation is still expected to run below the 2 percent target.
Lagarde also confirmed that there will be a comprehensive review of monetary policy (including the inflation target) and that climate change and environmental risk will feature strongly. This review, which will begin in January and is expected to be completed by the end of next year, will reach out to a wide audience that includes parliamentarians and academics. No other details were provided. Should the inflation target be changed at some point, there could be significant implications for Eurozone financial markets and the currency. The introduction of a green aspect to policy will also have important implications for the asset allocation within the APP portfolio. However, that is probably at least several quarters away; for now, it looks like ECB policy will be on hold for some time.
 Not an issue for the ECB is the value of the euro, which is down 3 percent this year against the dollar and is not crimping the competitiveness of European exports. In contrast, the Swiss franc, which is up about 3 percent against the euro so far in 2019, remains a concern for the Swiss National Bank which, in part because of recent stability in the currency, left its policy rate unchanged in the week at minus 0.75 percent. Yet the SNB reiterated its view that the Swiss franc is "highly valued" and that the situation on the foreign exchange market, though stable since the bank's last meeting in September, is still fragile. Yet the bank remains concerned that negative interest rates are hurting the profitability of banks, and it was just such worries that prompted a modification to the SNB's deposit facility at their September meeting when, in a move similar to one also implemented in September by the ECB, the bank raised the exemption threshold charged on bank deposits. As for the December meeting, there was little change. The SNB continues to walk a tightrope with regards to its FX policy; wanting a weaker franc to boost inflation but not prepared to cut interest rates any further. Yet the current level of the franc, though steady, is already testing the central bank's pain threshold, and any significant move higher by the currency might well force the central bank's hand.
 The Federal Reserve, in stark contrast to other central banks, does its best to avoid any reference no matter how remote to the value of the dollar, leaving this job to the executive branch. For the Fed key areas of concern are weakening global trade and its negative effects on US business investment and manufacturing, areas that the Fed at its latest meeting continued to describe as "weak". But otherwise, the Fed's view is upbeat: both the labor market and household spending were described as "strong" and economic growth "moderate". And like the ECB and the SNB the Fed left policy unchanged as expected, holding the federal funds rate steady within a range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent for an implied midpoint of 1.625 percent. December's meeting was marked by unity both in the vote which was 10-0 and in the economic outlook which members agreed was little changed. One hint of improvement, however, was the removal of the phrase "uncertainties about this outlook" which was part of the statements in the prior three meetings all of which produced incremental 25 basis point cuts.
Quarterly FOMC projections were slightly more accommodative with the funds target seen ending next year at the current 1.625 percent level, down from 1.875 percent in the last set of projections, and at 1.875 percent for 2021, versus 2.125 percent previously. GDP projections were unchanged including a 2.0 percent rate for 2020 though the unemployment rate was shaved, down 2 tenths for next year to 3.5 percent which is where it was in November's employment report. Inflation projections for the coming years are all unchanged including a 1.9 percent rate for 2020's PCE core whose current level we'll take a look at later in the article. As far as wage growth goes, which feeds indirectly into the PCE core, Jerome Powell said he would have to see it accelerate much faster before the Fed would consider raising interest rates (real earnings in November came in at 1.1 percent).
Otherwise, Powell's answers to reporters' questions were much like the day's meeting itself, that is as expected and containing no signal as to when the Fed might consider raising or lowering rates again. As for prior policy when the Fed, unlike many other central banks, was raising rates, Powell said the hikes were appropriate for an economy then growing at 3 percent with generally low interest rates and an unemployment rate under 4 percent. He noted that the assessment of labor slack is now greater than previously thought. Powell also answered several questions about the temporary repo facility, repeating it has no consequence for monetary policy. He said the Fed is building the base reserve level and assessing year-end fluctuations in the repo rate. At the end of last year the rate jumped to the neighborhood of 6 percent.
 Big economic news in the week was led by the US retail sales report for November and the first definitive data on the holiday shopping season. And the news was soft. Retail sales rose only 0.2 percent in November to miss Econoday's low estimate. In fact all the major readings came in just under the low estimates with ex-auto sales up 0.1 percent, ex-autos ex-gas unchanged, and the control group up only 0.1 percent. This latter reading is an input into personal consumption measures and points, together with a 0.3 percent rise in October, to no more than moderate growth for fourth-quarter consumer spending, at least so far. The year-on-year rate for total sales, at plus 3.3 percent in November as tracked in the accompanying graph, is also moderate. This rate had been trending in the low 4 percent range at mid-year.
Auto sales, up 0.5 percent in November and 1.0 percent in October, were a highlight of the report and may have drained sales from other retailers. Auto sales, which had been soft much of the year, are now posting among the strongest yearly rates, at plus 4.9 percent in November. Restaurant sales, which like autos offer a central reading on discretionary demand, have an even stronger annual rate at plus 5.1 percent though monthly sales have been in contraction, at minus 0.3 percent in November and minus 0.1 percent in October. The leading force of course in the retail sector is nonstore retailers (e-commerce) which were up 11.5 percent from November last year with monthly gains of 0.8 percent and 0.6 percent in the last two reports. Another area of strength was electronics & appliance stores, also at a monthly plus 0.7 percent in an indication of Black Friday success.
But success isn't the theme of November's data that include yet another decline for apparel stores, at minus 0.6 percent for yearly contraction of minus 3.3 percent, and department stores, also at minus 0.6 percent on the month and minus 7.2 percent on the year. Health & personal care stores saw sales fall 1.1 percent on the month and sporting goods down 0.5 percent. Building materials were unchanged with furniture sales up only 0.1 percent both of which hint at weak activity for home improvements and residential investment. Last year's holiday season was a big disappointment in the US which should offer an easy comparison for this year's results, but the first indications are nevertheless less than exciting.
 The week opened with another set of important data: Chinese trade. China's trade surplus in US dollar terms narrowed to $38.73 billion in November from $42.81 billion in October. Exports fell 1.1 percent on the year in November after falling 0.9 percent in October, with exports to both the US and European Union registering weaker yearly growth. Imports fell 0.3 percent on the year, after falling 6.4 percent previously. Exports, as tracked in the red line of the graph, have been trending more flat than down, unlike imports where contraction has been more evident and which betrays slowing in domestic Chinese demand.
 Growth in new yuan loans made by Chinese banks remains in the double digits but has been on the slide since early this year. New loans in November amounted to CNY1,390 billion, up from CNY661.3 billion in the prior month and broadly in line with the normal seasonal pattern associated with October's national holidays that subdue lending activity. Relative to November last year and as tracked in the graph, total outstanding loans rose by 12.4 percent, unchanged from the yearly pace in October. Turning back to monthly comparisons, "other forms of financing" also rebounded in November, increasing to CNY1,750 billion from CNY618.9 billion which was the lowest level since July 2016. This measure includes non-bank forms of finance such as initial public offerings, loans from non-bank financial institutions, and bond sales.
 It's this lack of lift in Chinese data that very likely encouraged the Chinese government to reach a trade deal with the US, news that was announced at the end of the week. But European economies have also been showing a lack of lift, and like the US and China have been showing contraction in the industrial sector. Industrial production (ex-construction) declined again in Italy during October. A 0.3 percent monthly drop was a little steeper than expected and, following a 0.4 percent fall in September, left output at its lowest level since last December. Production has now decreased in four of the last five months. Annual growth, as tracked in the graph, sank from minus 2.2 percent to minus 2.4 percent. The latest setback was due to monthly declines for capital goods (0.8 percent) and energy (1.9 percent) that offset modestly higher output in consumer goods and stability in intermediates. This was the first month since May that the intermediates subsector has not contracted. The October report put industrial production 0.4 percent below its average level in the third quarter when the sector fell into recession. Combined with the 1.7 percent monthly slump and 0.4 percent rise reported in Germany and France, Eurozone industrial production, released later in the week, fell 0.5 percent on the month for yearly contraction of 2.2 percent. Based on current trends, the industrial recession in Europe looks likely to have extended into the fourth quarter.
 Similar signs of industrial recession are emerging in Asian economies including India whose industrial production index fell 3.8 percent on the year in October, only a small improvement from an even deeper decline of 4.3 percent in September. Manufacturing output, which accounts for great bulk of the index, fell 2.1 on the year after dropping 3.9 percent previously. The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee left its main benchmark rate unchanged at a nine-year low of 5.15 percent at its policy review held last week. This followed a cumulative cut of 135 basis points at its previous five meetings. Officials concluded that it was appropriate to "pause" policy easing "at this juncture" while still recognizing that there is "space" for further rate cuts in the future.
 At the same time that industrial reports are failing to show much improvement, housing reports from some economies are. Australia's residential property price index rose 2.4 percent in the September quarter after declining 0.7 percent in the June quarter. This increase follows six consecutive quarterly declines in house prices. On a yearly basis as tracked in the graph, the index fell 3.7 percent after a second quarter drop of 7.4 percent. The headline index is a weighted average of house prices for the capital cities of Australia's eight states and territories. The quarterly increase was mainly driven by strong price rebounds in the two largest Australian cities, Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney house prices advanced 3.6 percent on the quarter, ending a run of eight consecutive quarterly declines, while Melbourne house prices also rose 3.6 percent on the quarter after six consecutive quarterly declines. Four other cities recorded modest increases, with the other two posting smaller declines on the quarter. The third quarter report is consistent with other indications that Australia's residential property market, after an extended period of weakness, has stabilized in recent months. At their policy meeting held in the prior week, officials at the Reserve Bank of Australia noted "further signs of a turnaround" in established housing markets, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, but pointed out that demand for credit by housing investors remains subdued.
 Inflation reports were numerous in the week and they, like other economic data, aren't showing much strength. Japan's producer price index rose 0.1 percent on the year in November after falling 0.4 percent in October. However marginal, this is the first yearly increase in producer prices since May. November's gain was mainly driven by stronger price increases for food and beverage prices which rose 1.1 percent on the year, up from growth of 0.9 percent in October. Petroleum and coal prices were in the negative column but a little less so in November, declining 8.3 percent on the year after falling 14.0 percent in October. Utilities charges pulled the overall index lower, dropping 0.7 percent on the year after falling 0.2 percent previously.
 Yet inflation reports on consumer prices, as noted by Christine Lagarde's assessment for Europe, may showing some improvement, or at least aren't continuing to sink. In the US, inflation pressures are moderate and running only slightly below what the Federal Reserve wants to see. The CPI gained 0.3 percent in November for a year-on-year rate of 2.1 percent, both at the high end of Econoday's consensus range. Running right at consensus was the ex-food ex-energy core, up 0.2 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year. The latter points to a steady rate for the specific target that the Fed tracks: the PCE core which last came in at 1.6 percent in data for October and under the Fed's 2.0 percent objective. Energy prices in November rose 0.8 percent at the consumer level but were down 0.6 percent on the year, while food inched 0.1 percent higher with this yearly rate at plus 2.0 percent. Medical care rose 0.3 percent in the month and was up 4.2 percent from November last year with shelter also up 0.3 percent on the month, the latter split between a 0.3 percent rise in rent and a 0.2 percent increase for homeowners. Shelter overall, which makes up more than 40 percent of total consumer prices, was up 3.3 percent on the year and is the most significant factor supporting prices.
Other prices in November's report included a monthly and yearly decline of 0.1 percent for new vehicles, a 0.9 percent dip in airline fares for a 2.0 percent yearly gain, and a 0.6 percent price drop in apparel for a 1.6 percent decline on the year, which by the way is a key factor behind the drop underway in dollar sales of apparel as tracked in the retail sales report. Turning back to medical care, of significant note was a 1.5 percent rise for health insurance with this yearly rate up a very substantial 20.2 percent. Physicians' services, in contrast, were up only 1.4 percent on the year. Inflation is running about where the Fed wants it, a little flat in trajectory but leaving room for upside improvement should wages, given the strength of the labor market, begin to accelerate.
 We close the week's data run with the latest on the US government budget and its deepening slide, one that may not be such a surprise heading into the 2020 election year. The Treasury's budget deficit was unexpectedly large in November, at $208.8 billion and up from the $204.9 billion recorded in November last year. This increases the shortfall for the first two months of the 2020 fiscal year (as tracked in the graph) to $343.3 billion, 12.4 percent deeper than in fiscal 2019. Outlays for the first two months of fiscal 2020 were up 6.5 percent on the year to $814.0 billion, outpacing and towering above receipts, at $470.7 billion for only a 2.6 percent gain. Leading outlays so far in fiscal 2020 is a 9.8 percent increase in expenditures for health care to $101.0 billion and a 7.5 percent rise in Medicare costs to $139.2 billion. Defense spending was also a main contributor to the size of the deficit, rising 6.9 percent to $134.3 billion, as were social security expenditures, which rose 6.2 percent to $177.8 billion. On the receipts side of the ledger, customs duties came in at $13.7 billion, relatively small compared to other receipts but up 24.1 percent from last year and still the growth leader, reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods.
 Up 1.6 percent, the FTSE rose strongly in the week leading up to Boris Johnson's comfortable victory. Crucially for financial markets, the magnitude of the Conservatives’ win should be more than enough to ensure the smooth passage of the incoming government's legislation through Parliament. No longer is there the need to seek the support of the smaller parties, notably Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). This should mean that Brexit is effectively nailed down for the current Jan. 31 deadline. Though Brexit may be almost done, the future trading relationship with the EU still has to be negotiated. Under the current agreement, negotiations are due to be completed by the end of next year, a timetable seen by many as impossibly short unless one or both sides accept significant (unrealistic?) compromises. And this could prove problematic since Johnson has already indicated his willingness to leave with or without a deal. A breakdown in negotiations here could mean either an extension for the transition period, or, worse case for investors, a hard Brexit with no trade deal at all. And another possible obstacle were the sweeping wins for the Scottish National Party which took almost all of Scotland, results that will be seen as increasing pressure for another independence referendum.
The other big market story of the week was a US-China agreement on a phase-one trade deal covering intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and foreign exchange, but details and specific agreement language have not been released including enhanced protections for US firms doing business in China and the actual size of Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. US tariffs scheduled to take effect Dec. 15 will be scrapped, but a 25 percent tariff will remain in effect on $250 billion of Chinese imported goods. Tariffs on another batch of $120 billion in Chinese imports will be cut in half to 7.5 percent. Negotiations on a phase two deal are to start immediately. The tariffs that will not take effect on Dec. 15 would have affected many consumer goods, including electronics. The Shanghai, up 1.9 percent in the week, rose sharply on reports of the agreement heading into Friday's announcement while the Dow failed to respond to the news itself, inching higher on Friday for a weekly gain of 0.01 percent.
Though not showing much enthusiasm on news of a trade deal, the Dow is still up 20.6 percent on the year with other global indexes also showing strong gains: the FTSE up 9.3 percent, Shanghai up 19.0 percent and the Dax among the global leaders at 26.3 percent appreciation. These gains less reflect general economic strength and are more the result of this year's synchronized series of rate cuts by major central banks, not to mention a boost from heavy fiscal stimulus in the US. Moving into year-end, central banks, if not federal governments, are easing up on the accelerator at the same time, however, that global economies are showing little new acceleration, ending the year at modest-to-moderate but still acceptable rates of growth.
**Jeremy Hawkins and Brian Jackson contributed to this article as did Mace News
China will be out in front of the global calendar, posting November data on Monday morning for retail sales, industrial production, as well as fixed asset investment. Forecasters on net are looking for slight improvement. Initial indications on December activity will follow in Europe with a string of purchasing manager indexes on Monday morning headlined by Germany and whether its manufacturing PMI can extend its recent recovery. Of special note will be the second posting of the CIPS/PMI composite flash that will offer initial data on December and the effects, if any, going into the general election on UK activity. Tuesday's highlights will be the UK labour market report, which has been cooling, and US industrial production which has been in contraction though a big rebound is expected for November, while Wednesday will open with Japanese merchandise trade and include an announcement from the Bank of Japan. Here the BoJ's assessment of inflation will be in focus, and whether there is or isn't any "momentum" toward their long effort to lift consumer prices. Japan's CPI follows on Friday. On Thursday, Australia will post labour data and the UK posting November retail sales, while the Bank of England will issue a policy announcement where, like the BoJ, no action is expected. PCE inflation data out of the US caps off the week and forecasters are not expecting to see much improvement (note that this report will be released an hour-and-a-half later than normal, at 10:00 a.m. EST). If the PCE data come out as expected, slow but at least steady will be the theme.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment for November (Mon 02:00 GMT; Mon 10:00 CST; Sun 21:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Year-to-date: 5.2%
Held down by mining and investment in property sectors, fixed asset investment rose a lower-than-expected 5.2 percent year-to-date in October versus 5.4 percent in September. Forecasters see November fixed asset investment holding at a year-to-date 5.2 percent.
Chinese Industrial Production for November (Mon 02:00 GMT; Mon 10:00 CST; Sun 21:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: 5.0%
Pulled lower by both mining and manufacturing, growth slowed sharply in October, to a lower-than-expected 4.7 percent year-on-year rate with forecasters pegging 5.0 percent for November.
Chinese Retail Sales for November (Mon 02:00 GMT; Mon 10:00 CST; Sun 21:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Year-over-Year: 7.6%
Slowing was broad-based in October retail sales but forecasters see better strength in November, at consensus year-on-year growth of 7.6 percent versus October's lower-than-expected 7.2 percent.
French PMI Composite Flash for December (Mon 08:15 GMT; Mon 09:15 CET; Mon 03:15 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing: 51.4
Consensus Forecast, Services: 52.2
Consensus Forecast, Composite: 52.0
At a consensus 51.4, France's PMI manufacturing flash for December is expected to show slight erosion. The services flash in December is also seen slightly lower at 52.2 with the composite at 52.0.
German PMI Composite Flash for December (Mon 08:30 GMT; Mon 09:30 CET; Mon 03:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing: 45.0
Consensus Forecast, Services: 52.0
Consensus Forecast, Composite: 50.1
Contraction in manufacturing eased in November while growth in services remained modest. The manufacturing consensus for December's flash is 45.0 which would compare with November's final of 44.1 and November's flash of 43.8. German services in December are seen at 52.0 with the composite at 50.1.
Eurozone PMI Composite Flash for December (Mon 09:00 GMT; Mon 10:00 CET; Mon 04:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing: 47.0
Consensus Forecast, Services: 51.5
Consensus Forecast, Composite: 49.7
Slow growth for services and still significant contraction for manufacturing are the expectations for December's PMIs from the Eurozone, at 47.0 for manufacturing, 51.5 for services and 49.7 for the composite.
UK: CIPS/PMI Composite Flash for December (Mon 09:30 GMT; Mon 04:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing: 49.4
Consensus Forecast, Services: 49.5
Consensus Forecast, Composite: 49.5
Not benefiting from the approach of Brexit deadlines, the CIPS/PMI manufacturing index has been in contraction since May with only modest improvement expected for December, at consensus 49.4 versus 48.9 in November. Services are seen at 49.5 with the composite also at 49.5.
Italian CPI, Preliminary December (Mon 10:00 GMT; Mon 11:00 CET; Mon 05:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.0%
Consensus Forecast, Year-over-Year: 0.4%
Italian consumer prices are expected to come in unchanged in December as they did in November. Year-on-year, preliminary December is expected to come in at plus 0.4 percent.
UK: CBI Industrial Trends for December (Mon 11:00 GMT; Mon 06:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: -12
CBI's industrial trends report has been signaling significant weakness including for exports and output. After minus 26 in November, forecasters see December's headline at minus 12.
UK Labour Market Report for November (Tue 09:30 GMT; Tue 04:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Claimant Count: 21,300
Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 3.9%
Consensus Forecast, Average Weekly Earnings, Year-on-Year: 3.8%
Claimant count unemployment rose 33,000 in October and is expected to rise 21,300 in November. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to rise 1 tenth in November to 3.9 percent. The call for average hourly earnings, which eased back in October to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent as recently as August, is 3.8 percent year-on-year.
Eurozone Merchandise Trade Balance for October (Tue 10:00 GMT; Tue 11:00 CET; Tue 05:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: €17.0 billion
Cross border flows improved in September though the Eurozone's surplus narrowed to €18.3 billion. For October a surplus of €17.0 billion is expected.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales for October (Tue 13:30 GMT; Tue 08:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: -0.4%
Energy as well as the effects from the US auto strike against GM pulled down manufacturing sales in Canada during September. After monthly contraction of 0.2 percent for yearly contraction of 1.2 percent, forecasters see October sales decreasing 0.4 percent on the month.
US Industrial Production for November (Tue 14:15 GMT; Tue 09:15 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.9%
Manufacturing Production
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.7%
Capacity Utilization Rate
Consensus Forecast: 77.4%
After two very weak months tied to the since resolved GM strike, industrial production in November is expected to rebound 0.9 percent and led by a 0.7 percent gain for manufacturing. Capacity utilization is expected to increase 7 percentage points to 77.4 percent. But outside of vehicle effects, underlying data in this report have been soft including production of business equipment.
Japanese Merchandise Trade for November (Tue 23:50 GMT; Wed 08:50 JST; Tue 18:50 EST)
Consensus Forecast: -¥350.0 billion
Consensus Forecast, Exports Year-over-Year: -7.1%
Consensus Forecast, Imports Year-over-Year: -13.6%
A surplus of ¥350.0 billion is expected for the November merchandise trade report versus what was a smaller-than-expected surplus of ¥17.3 billion in October. Both Japanese exports and imports have been in year-on-year contraction with expectations for November at minus 7.1 percent for exports and minus 13.6 for imports.
Bank of Japan Announcement (Wed JST; Release time not set)
Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp
Consensus Forecast, Level: -0.1%
No change is expected for the Bank of Japan's announcement with the short-term policy rate for excess reserves remaining at minus 0.1 percent and the target level for the long-term 10-year yield at around zero percent. At its last announcement in October, the BoJ said the risk of losing momentum in their battle to increase inflation had not increased from their prior meeting.
German PPI for November (Wed 07:00 GMT; Wed 8:00 CET; Wed 02:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: -0.1%
Consensus Forecast, Year-over-Year: -0.8%
German producer prices are at three-year lows. November's consensus is minus 0.1 percent for the monthly rate and minus 0.8 percent for the yearly rate which would compare with respective results in October of minus 0.2 percent and minus 0.6 percent.
German Ifo Economic Sentiment for December (Wed 09:00 GMT; Wed 10:00 CET; Wed 04:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: 95.5
For December, German economic sentiment is expected to rise to 95.5 versus 95.0 in November which was just up from seven-year lows.
UK CPI for November (Wed 09:30 GMT; Wed 04:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.1%
Consensus Forecast, Year-over-Year: 1.5%
After a cooler-than-expected showing in October, consumer prices in the UK are expected to pick up in November but only slightly, at a 0.1 percent gain for the monthly rate (versus October's minus 0.2 percent) but no change for the yearly rate which is expected to hold at 1.5 percent.
Canadian CPI for November (Wed 13:30 GMT; Wed 08:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.0%
Consensus Forecast, Year-over-Year: 2.1%
Headline consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in October though year-on-year change held unchanged at 1.9 percent for a third month in a row and just below the Bank of Canada's 2 percent target. For November, the consensus is no monthly change for a 2.1 percent yearly rate.
Australian Labour Force Survey for November (Thu 00:30 GMT; Thu 11:30 AEDT; Wed 19:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 5.3%
Consensus Forecast, Employment: 18,000
Consensus Forecast, Participation Rate: 66.1%
Employment growth fell by 19,000 in October though the unemployment rate held steady at 5.3 percent. For November, employment in Australia is expected to rise 18,000 with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 5.3 percent and the participation rate up 1 tenth to 66.1 percent.
French Business Climate Indicator for December (Thu 7:45 GMT; Thu 08:45 CET; Thu 02:45 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing: 100
France's business climate indicator posted an as-expected but still rare increase in November, up 1 point to its long-term average at 100. For December, the consensus is also 100.
UK Retail Sales for November (Thu 09:30 GMT; Thu 04:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.5%
Retail sales are expected to rise a 0.5 monthly percent in November after slipping 0.1 percent in October despite gains in non-food demand.
Bank of England Announcement (Thu 12:00 GMT; Thu 07:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 basis points
Consensus Forecast, Level: 0.75%
Consensus Forecast: Asset Purchase Level: £435 billion
No change is once again the expectation for Bank of England monetary policy which, despite a gentle bias toward tightening, is locked in place by Brexit uncertainty but also by general slowing in the global economy. Bank Rate is expected to stay at 0.75 percent and the QE ceiling at £435 billion.
Japanese Consumer Price Index for November (Thu 23:30 GMT; Fri 08:30 JST; Thu 18:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast Ex-Food, Year-on-Year: 0.5%
Minimal pressure is the consensus for ex-food consumer prices, at a year-on-year 0.5 percent pace in November following what was a lower-than-expected 0.2 percent pace in October and well below the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target.
Germany: GfK Consumer Climate for January (Fri 07:00 GMT; Fri 08:00 CET; Fri 02:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: 9.7
No change is the call for January's Gfk survey which in December rose 1 tenth to 9.7 and just up from a 3-1/2 year low.
French Consumer Manufactured Goods Consumption for November (Fri 07:45 GMT; Fri 08:45 CET; Fri 02:45 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.3%
Consumer manufactured goods consumption is expected to rise a month-to-month 0.3 percent in November versus a 0.2 percent increase in October as a gain for transport equipment was offset by a decline for textiles.
Italian Business and Consumer Confidence for December (Fri 09:00 GMT; Fri 10:00 CET; 04:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Confidence: 99.4
Consensus Forecast, Consumer Confidence: 109.7
Sentiment was mixed in November with manufacturing confidence slipping only modestly but consumer confidence slipping noticeably. For December the consensus is a gain for manufacturing to 99.4 versus 98.9 in November with consumer confidence at 109.7 versus November's 108.5.
Canadian Retail Sales for October (Fri 13:30 GMT; Fri 08:30 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month: 0.5%
Canadian retail sales in October are expected to increase 0.5 percent versus a 0.1 percent monthly dip in September that pulled year-on-year growth down 1 tenth to 1.0 percent.
Eurozone: EC Consumer Confidence Flash for December (Fri 15:00 GMT; Fri 16:00 CET; Fri 10:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast: -7.1
Though soft, confidence has been steady to improving, at a slightly better-than-expected minus 7.2 in the last report for November with forecasters seeing the flash for December at minus 7.1.
US Personal Income for November (Fri 15:00 GMT; Fri 10:00 EST)
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.3%
Consumer Spending
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.4%
Core PCE Price Index
Consensus Forecast, Month-to-Month Change: 0.2%
Core PCE Price Index
Consensus Forecast, Year-on-Year Change: 1.6%
Growth in income and spending was soft in both September and October as was core PCE inflation, all consistent with a moderate to flat rate of general economic growth. For November, personal income is expected to rise 0.3 percent with consumer spending up 0.4 percent. After no change in September and only a 0.1 percent rise in October, the core PCE price index is expected to increase a monthly 0.2 percent with the yearly rate holding steady at 1.6 percent and below the Fed's 2 percent target.
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