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SIMPLY ECONOMICS

Geopolitics, mixed data, and bonds
Econoday Simply Economics 9/26/14
By R. Mark Rogers, Senior U.S. Economist

  

This past week, numerous issues weighed on markets.  Key ones were geopolitics—notably in the Middle East—mixed economic news and the announcement of a move of a key bond manager between major bond companies.


 

Recap of US Markets


 

STOCKS

Net for the week, stocks were down sharply.  The week started on a sour note with equities dropping on concerns about economic growth in China and an unexpected decline in existing home sales.  The downdraft continued Tuesday as health-care shares slid after the Treasury Department disclosed plans to limit inversion deals.  Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East also tugged down on shares.  Also, the Eurozone's September manufacturing and services sector PMIs slipped to their lowest levels for the year


 

Stocks jumped Wednesday on new home sales spiking to a six-year high for the sales pace.  But Thursday showed the largest daily declines in indexes, led down by the tech sector after Apple announced problems in its operating system.  Geopolitical concerns also weighed on stocks.  Friday saw stocks cut losses somewhat with a sizeable rebound.  Traders liked the upward revision to second quarter GDP and corporate results were favorable.  Standout company gains were seen in Nike, Micron Technology, Yahoo, and Janus Capital Group.  Janus was boosted sharply on news of Bill Gross moving there from Pacific Investment Management Co. to manage a global bond fund.

 

Throughout the week, there were pervasive worries that numerous negative issues (such as geopolitical) and sluggish or uncertain economic data would weigh on the equities rally.

 

Equities were down this past week. The Dow was down 1.0 percent; the S&P 500, down 1.4 percent; the Nasdaq, down 1.5 percent; the Russell 2000, down 2.4 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, down 1.6 percent.

 

For the year-to-date, major indexes are up as follows except for small caps: the Dow, up 3.2 percent; the S&P 500, up 7.3 percent; the Nasdaq, up 8.0 percent; the Russell 2000, down 3.8 percent; and the Wilshire 5000, up 6.0 percent.


 

Markets at a Glance

Weekly percent change column reflects percent changes for all components except interest rates. Interest rate changes are reflected in simple differences.


 

BONDS

Treasury yields trended down all week with Wednesday being the daily exception in the other direction.  Rates eased Monday as New York Fed President William Dudley argued for "patience" on when Fed policy rates should first increase next year.  Also, home sales data were weak.  Yields dipped Tuesday on flight to safety as the U.S. and Middle Eastern partners began air strikes in Syria against ISIS targets.

 

Rates rose somewhat Wednesday on the week's second home sales report jumping unexpectedly.  Also, one of the Fed's hawks, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, said it is time to start normalizing policy rates.  Thursday, yields declined moderately as the monthly seven-year note auction attracted an increase in foreign demand.  At the end of the week, rates rose on worries that Pimco would be selling U.S. Treasuries after the departure of Bill Gross to diversify its holdings.

 

For this past week Treasury rates were mostly down as follows: the 5-year note, down 1 basis point; the 7-year note, down 4 basis points; the 10-year note, down 5 basis points; and the 30-year bond, down 6 basis points.  The 3-month T-bill was unchanged while the 2-year note was up 3 basis points;


 

OIL PRICES

The spot price of West Texas Intermediate ended the week up modestly.  There were only very moderate daily swings in price.  The largest daily change was Monday with a decline of about a buck and a half on concern that growth in China is slowing which would reduce demand for WTI.  Spot crude gained under a dollar a barrel as the U.S. and their Arab allies began a series of airstrikes against ISIS positions in Syria.  Crude continued up Wednesday by just over a dollar a barrel as U.S. inventories fell to an eight-month low.  Spot WTI eased about half a dollar Thursday on unexpected Gulf Coast refinery outages.  At the end of the week, spot crude rose about a dollar a barrel on news that second quarter GDP was revised up—bolstering some traders' view that economic growth is going to be moderately healthy.

 

Net for the week, the spot price for West Texas Intermediate firmed 99 cents per barrel to settle at $93.43.


 

The Economy

The second quarter was relatively robust but the third quarter is less so and quite mixed.


 

GDP gets an upgrade

The final revision to second quarter GDP growth showed an upward revision to 4.6 percent from the prior estimate of 4.2 percent and compared to the first quarter decline of 2.1 percent.  The revision matched expectations.  The latest second quarter number is the fastest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2011—also 4.6 percent.

 

Upward revisions primarily came from nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports.

 

Broad demand numbers also were revised up.  Final sales of domestic product were boosted to 3.2 percent, compared to the second estimate of 2.8 percent and a first quarter decline of 1.0 percent.  Final sales to domestic purchasers (which exclude net exports) were increased to 3.4 percent, compared to the second estimate of 3.1 percent and a first quarter rise of 0.7 percent.

 

Looking at growth rates (instead of the direction and degree of component revisions), strength for the second quarter was broad based in inventory investment, net exports, nonresidential fixed investment and residential investment.  Personal consumption also was healthy.

 

Chain-weighted prices advanced 2.1 percent annualized, equaling the prior estimate and forecasts and compared to the first quarter number of 1.3 percent.

 

The general picture of the second quarter has not changed.  Second quarter strength to a notable degree was a rebound from the weather-related decline in the first quarter.  This was especially true for inventories and construction components.  Nonetheless, the quarter was moderately favorable.  However, the rebound effect will show up little if at all in the third quarter and a more moderate number should be expected.


 

Durables orders fall back to earth

The latest two months of durables data are a clear lesson that it is underlying detail that may give the big picture instead of the headline number.  The durables series is volatile on an ongoing basis, but the latest two months set a new benchmark for volatility.

 

Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July's surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August.  New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent in July.  For the historical series, August was a record monthly decline and July was a record increase.

 

Transportation fell a monthly 42.0 percent in August, following a 73.3 percent jump the month before.  Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.5 percent in July.


 

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft fell a monthly 74.3 percent, following a 315.6 percent spike in July with both swings essentially reflecting Boeing aircraft orders.  Boeing had picked up its largest one month booking of 324 aircraft.  Defense aircraft orders slipped 0.6 percent, following a 31.7 percent drop in July.  Motor vehicle orders have been moderately volatile but healthy on average, decreasing 6.4 percent after a 10.0 percent boost the prior month.

 

Outside of transportation, gains were broad based with only one major component declining.

 

Orders for equipment investment made a healthy comeback in August. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 0.6 percent in August, following a dip of 0.2 percent the month before. Shipments of this series edged up 0.1 percent but followed a strong 1.9 percent gain in July.

 

Recent durables orders have shown record volatility.  On average, durables orders point to modest upward momentum in manufacturing.


 

PMI flash manufacturing posts another month of healthy growth

According to Market Economics, September is going to be healthy for the manufacturing sector. Markit's US manufacturing sample is reporting strong and steady growth so far this month, at 57.9 vs 57.9 in the final August reading and 58.0 in the August flash. Details are not offered to the public but the report does note that output is strong and that new business is especially strong. The report also notes strength in backlog orders and export sales. Another plus is what it describes as "robust" strength in manufacturing employment.

 

Though offering the first national reading on the US manufacturing sector and though Markit's reports on China and Europe are very closely watched, Markit's US report has yet to have much impact on US markets. Instead, US markets focus most closely on the Empire State report and especially the long established Philly Fed report for the first monthly readings on manufacturing. Both the Empire State and Philly Fed reports, released in the prior week, showed similar strength to this report.  And more recent Fed regional reports also reported healthy numbers.


 

Richmond and Kansas City moderately strong in September

The latest two regional Fed surveys on manufacturing were very positive—especially the Richmond Fed survey.

 

All indications so far point to solid strength this month for the manufacturing sector. Richmond Fed's index rose 2 points in the month to 14 with details showing incremental acceleration for new orders, also at 14, and shipments which are at 11. Price data show some acceleration for inputs while inventory data show desired builds for both raw materials and finished goods.


 

Growth in Kansas City Fed District manufacturing activity edged higher in September, and producers' expectations for future activity maintained the solid level of the previous survey.  Price indexes showed a mild decline from the previous month, and expectations for future price growth were mixed. Several firms continued to comment about difficulties finding qualified labor, resulting in some wage pressures.

 

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in September, slightly higher than 3 in August but lower than 9 in July. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The growth in manufacturing activity continued to occur primarily at durable goods-producing plants. Nondurable goods-producers experienced only a modest rise, with activity at some food processing plants continuing to decline in the face of higher beef prices.

 

The production index increased from plus 4 to 12 and the shipment index grew from plus 2 in August to 14. The employment index increased significantly from minus 4 in the last survey period to plus 7 in September. Most other month-over-month indexes eased compared to August's readings. The new orders and backlog of orders indexes both declined modestly.  The new orders index remained in positive territory.  The backlogs index slipped further into negative territory on a jump in shipments.

 

The latest report from Kansas City points to moderate growth in manufacturing in the Kansas City District.   With healthy numbers from the latest Philly Fed, New York Fed, and Richmond Fed, there is a good chance that national production for September will come in as a nice positive.  Also, favorable new orders numbers point to positive growth ahead.


 

Existing home sales decline in August

This past week's housing data were mixed with existing home sales and FHFA home disappointing. In contrast, new home sales surprised on the upside.

 

But in a disappointment out of the housing sector, existing home sales fell back 1.8 percent in August to a lower-than-expected annual rate of 5.05 million. Year-on-year, sales were down 5.3 percent, a bit more steep than minus 4.5 percent in the prior month.

 

Limited supply has been a major factor holding down sales with supply on the market falling 40,000 homes in the month to 2.31 million. Supply relative to sales, at 5.5 months, held unchanged reflecting August's sales dip.

 

Prices have been flat the last six months, down 0.8 percent in August to a median $219,800. Year-on-year, the median was little changed at plus 4.8 percent.

 

Looking at regional sales data, August's weakness was centered in the West, down 6.0 percent, followed by the largest housing region which is the South, down 4.2 percent. The Northeast, which is the smallest region, showed a 4.7 percent gain with the Midwest up 2.5 percent.

 

Lack of supply is a factor in weakness in existing homes. Notably, a lack of distressed sales on the market, at a recovery low of 8 percent in August's sales data, is a hidden factor holding back sales.  Also, investors purchased a lower share of total existing homes sold in August: 12 percent down sharply from 16 percent over the prior three months.  The decline in this percentage likely is a problem that overlaps with lack of distressed sales.


 

New home sales unexpectedly jump in August

In a report that is frequently volatile due to a relatively small sample, new home sales surged 18.0 percent in August to a much higher-than-expected annual rate of 504,000.  This was the biggest monthly increase since January 1992.  Another positive in the report was a notable upward revision for July to 427,000 from the initial estimate of 412,000.

 

Low supply has been a stubborn problem holding down both sales of new homes and existing homes, and the surge in August sales has made this problem more pronounced. Supply of new homes at the current sales rate fell in August to 4.6 months from 5.6 months in the prior month. Builders will likely be scrambling to bring new homes onto the market which in August totaled 203,000 units versus 201,000 in July.

 

Prices may no longer be holding down sales, falling 1.6 percent on the median in the month to $275,600. Year-on-year, the median was up 8.0 percent in August which sounds high but not against the 33.0 percent gain in sales.

 

Looking regionally at sales, sales surged 50.0 percent in the West followed by a 29.2 percent gain in the East. In the South, where more new homes are sold than all other regions combined, sales rose 7.8 percent.

 

This report is a reminder of the home builders' housing market index where the traffic component, which had been lagging badly, is suddenly surging. But whether the strength in the latest report can be extended and whether August's gain will be revised downward are uncertain. Note that revisions to this series are often as volatile as any single month's headline.


 

FHFA home price appreciation slows

While sales have been volatile in recent months, the trend for prices is clear.  Growth in home prices has slowed significantly. Home price appreciation decelerated according to FHFA with a rise of 0.1 percent in July, following a 0.3 percent advance the month before.

 

The year-ago rate continues to slow, easing to 4.4 percent from 5.1 percent in June.  These numbers compare to a recovery high in July 2013 of 8.5 percent.

 

Regionally, five Census regions reported gains in July; two declined; and two were unchanged.

 

Housing is showing mixed numbers but more often showing soft demand.


 

PMI flash services eases but remains strong

Service sector growth has been strong this month but a little less strong than August, based on Markit's early September sample where the headline index came in well above breakeven 50 at 58.5 versus 59.5 in final August and the same 58.5 for flash August. According to the text of the report, incoming orders are showing one of their sharpest increases in the five-year history of the report. Growth in backlog orders is also at a survey best. Also a plus is job creation which is at its best rate since June. The outlook for business activity is also strong, also at its best level since June. Price data show increases for salaries and food along with traction for final goods. Though this report, where details are not released to the public, offers no explanation for the slowing headline number in September, it nevertheless should confirm confidence in the general economic outlook.


 

Consumer sentiment stays moderately optimistic

Consumer sentiment finished September at 84.6 versus 84.6 at mid-month and up from 82.5 from final August. The gain from August is centered in the expectations component which came in at 75.4 for final September, up 4.1 points from August which points to confidence in the outlooks for jobs and for income.


 

The current conditions component, however, fell back slightly, down 0.9 points from August to 98.9 in a dip that does not point to strength for current consumer activity nor strength in the September jobs market.  The current conditions slippage likely is related to weak job creation even though initial jobless claims have been trending down.  Apparently, the vast majority of layoffs have already occurred.  Also, current conditions are sluggish despite recent declines in gasoline prices.

 

Inflation is not a factor behind the dip in current conditions as 1-year expectations fell 2 tenths from August to 3.0 percent with 5-year expectations down 1 tenth to 2.8 percent in declines that reflect the price contraction underway at the gas pump.


 

The bottom line

This past week, relative strength by sector remains the same with moderate forward momentum in manufacturing despite volatility in the data while housing mostly is slowing.  Despite sluggish jobs growth, the consumer is moderately positive in mood.  Overall, the third quarter is respectably positive but expect less robust growth following the second quarter rebound. Incoming data do not appear to be strong enough for the Fed to accelerate the timing of the first increase in the fed funds target rate.


 

Looking Ahead: Week of September 29 through October 3 

The two big reports this week are the employment situation and the personal income report.  Last month's payroll gain was deeply disappointing and the economy needs to see improvement for September.  Personal income growth for July also was sluggish.  Stronger gains are needed for the consumer to keep spending at a decent pace.  Housing has been a big question mark with the latest housing sales numbers mixed and FHFA home price growth slowing and Case-Shiller actually dipping in the latest report. Updates this week are pending home sales and a new Case-Shiller report.


 

Monday 

Personal income decelerated in July after two strong months. Personal income rose 0.2 percent in July after gains of 0.5 percent in both June and May. The wages & salaries component followed a similar track, advancing 0.2 percent in July after increases of 0.4 percent in each of the prior two months.  Personal spending unexpectedly declined 0.1 percent after a 0.4 percent jump in June.  PCE inflation slowed to a monthly 0.1 percent in July from 0.2 percent in June. The latest figure equaled expectations. Core PCE inflation posted at 0.1 percent-the same pace as in June. Analysts projected 0.1 percent.

 

Personal income Consensus Forecast for August 14: +0.3 percent

Range: +0.2 to +0.4 percent

 

Personal consumption expenditures Consensus Forecast for August 14: +0.5 percent

Range: +0.2 to +0.6 percent

 

PCE price index Consensus Forecast for August 14: -0.1 percent

Range: -0.3 to -0.1 percent

 

Core PCE price index Consensus Forecast for August 14: 0.0 percent

Range: 0.0 to +0.2 percent


 

The pending home sales index for July posted a very strong 3.3 percent rise to 105.9.  Regional data showed convincing gains led by the Northeast at 6.2 percent in the month followed by the South, at 4.2 percent, and the West at 4.0 percent. The Midwest was the only region in the minus column, and only at 0.4 percent.

 

Pending home sales Consensus Forecast for August 14: +0.8 percent

Range: -2.5 to +4.0 percent


 

The Dallas Fed general business activity index in its Texas manufacturing survey remained positive but fell to a five-month low of 7.1.  The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 19.1 to 6.8 indicating that output growth decelerated from July.  Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected notably slower growth in August. The new orders index fell 11 points to 2.2 after surging in July. The shipments index experienced the largest fall, from 22.8 to 6.4, reaching its lowest reading in eight months.  Expectations regarding future business conditions remained optimistic in August. The index of future general business activity inched down 1 point to 18.7, while the index of future company outlook rose 6 points to 30.1. Indexes for future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements in August but remained in solidly positive territory.

 

Dallas Fed general business activity index Consensus Forecast for September 14: 10.3

Range: 9.0 to 11.5


 

Tuesday

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) showed home price appreciation for June continuing to unwind, showing a 0.2 percent decline, following a 0.3 percent decline in May. Year-on-year, the adjusted rate was a slower plus 8.1 percent versus 9.3 percent in May. Monthly declines swept 13 of the 20 cities with Minneapolis, Detroit, Atlanta and Chicago showing special weakness.

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (SA, m/m) Consensus Forecast for July 14: +0.1 percent

Range: -0.3 to +0.2 percent

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (NSA, m/m) Consensus Forecast for July 14: +1.3 percent

Range: +0.5 to +1.3 percent

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI (NSA, y/y) Consensus Forecast for July 14: +7.5 percent

Range: +6.8 to +7.8 percent


 

The Chicago PMI in August jumped to extreme monthly expansion of 64.3 from slight monthly expansion in July at 52.6. The August reading was the highest since a 65.5 spike in May.  Details of the report are released to paid subscribers only but a general rundown was published with production leading August's gain while the monthly gain in new orders was described as strong. The wild swings likely are due to a small sample for the survey.

 

Chicago PMI Consensus Forecast for September 14: 62.0

Range: 59.0 to 65.4


 

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in August was led by strength in the current assessment component. Consumer confidence rose 2.1 points to a new recovery high of 92.4 reflecting a 6.7 point surge in the present situation component to 94.6. The gain in the present situation offset softness in the expectations component which was down 1.0 point to 90.9.

 

Consumer confidence Consensus Forecast for September 14: 92.5

Range: 90.0 to 95.0 


 

Wednesday

Sales of total light motor vehicles in August showed consumers willing to spend, jumping 7.0 percent to a 14.1 million unit annualized pace.  Imports showed a solid 4.0 percent boost to 3.5 million units.  Combined sales posted at a robust 17.5 million units, up 6.4 percent.

 

Motor vehicle domestic sales Consensus Forecast for September 14: 13.2 million-unit rate

Range: 13.0 to 13.5 million-unit rate

 

Motor vehicle total sales Consensus Forecast for September 14: 16.8 million-unit rate

Range: 16.5 to 17.1 million-unit rate


 

ADP private payroll employment estimate for August was 204,000.  The comparable BLS number posted at 142,000.

 

ADP private payrolls Consensus Forecast for September 14: 200,000

Range: 185,000 to 267,000


 

The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in August jumped to 59.0 from 57.1 in July.  New orders headlined August's strength, rising to an exceptional 66.7 versus an already very strong 63.4 in July. Production was at 64.5, versus July 61.2 with employment steady and strong at 58.1 versus 58.2.

 

ISM manufacturing composite index Consensus Forecast for September 14: 58.0

Range: 57.6 to 58.3


 

The Markit PMI manufacturing index (flash) for September posted strong and steady growth so far at 57.9 versus 57.9 in the final August reading and 58.0 in the August flash.

 

Markit PMI manufacturing final index Consensus Forecast for September 14: 58.0

Range: 57.6 to 58.3


 

Construction spending saw a broad-based gain in July.  Construction spending rebounded 1.8 percent after a 0.9 percent dip in June.   While all broad categories advanced, July's increase was led by the public sector—up 3.0 percent, following a 1.8 percent decrease in June.  Private nonresidential spending rebounded 2.1 percent in July after slipping 0.8 percent the month before.  Private residential outlays gained 0.7 percent, following a 0.4 percent dip in June.

 

Construction spending Consensus Forecast for August 14: +0.5 percent

Range: -0.8 to +1.0 percent


 

Thursday

Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 in the September 20 week but followed only a slightly upward revised 35,000 plunge in the prior week which, importantly, was the sample week for the government's monthly employment report. The 4-week average was down 1,250 against both the prior week and the month-ago week. 

 

The latest for continuing claims, which lag by a week and which in the latest data match the sample week for the September employment report, rose 7,000 to 2.439 million, but the 4-week average was down a very sizable 23,000 to 2.460 million and a new recovery low.

 

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 9/26/14: 297,000

Range: 285,000 to 311,000


 

Factory orders surged 10.5 percent in July, skewed by Boeing orders at the Farnborough Airshow.  Excluding transportation equipment, which includes both aircraft and vehicles, factory orders actually slipped, down 0.8 percent in the month.  But there were important positives in the report including a sharp 1.2 percent rise for shipments and a 1.4 percent rise for shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Unfilled orders showed an unusually outsized gain of 5.4 percent while inventories, up only 0.1 percent, will need to be refilled.  More recently, new factory orders for durables in August dropped a monthly 18.2 percent.

 

Factory orders Consensus Forecast for August 14: -9.3 percent

Range: -11.0 to -1.2 percent


 

Friday

Nonfarm payroll employment for August was notably disappointing. But some commentators noted that August is a very revisable number with the data for the month frequently revised upwards.  Payroll jobs rose only 142,000, after a 212,000 increase in July and 267,000 boost in June.  The unemployment rate eased back to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in July. Expectations were for 6.1 percent.  The "U-6" underemployment rate slipped to 12.0 percent from 12.2 percent in July.  Going back to the payroll report, private payrolls rose 134,000 in August after a 213,000 gain in July.  Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent, improving over July's 0.1 percent. Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 hours.

 

Nonfarm payrolls Consensus Forecast for September 14: 215,000

Range: 185,000 to 289,000

 

Private payrolls Consensus Forecast for September 14: 215,000

Range: 185,000 to 281,000

 

Unemployment rate Consensus Forecast for September 14: 6.1 percent

Range: 6.0 to 6.2 hours

 

Average workweek Consensus Forecast for September 14: 34.5 hours

Range: 34.5 to 34.5 hours

 

Average hourly earnings Consensus Forecast for September 14: +0.2 percent

Range: +0.1 to +0.3 percent


 

The U.S. international trade gap in July shrank marginally to $40.5 billion from $40.8 billion in June.  Exports rose 0.9 percent in July after no change the month before. Imports gained 0.7 percent, following a 1.1 percent drop in June.  The goods excluding petroleum gap decreased to $44.7 billion from $45.0 billion in June. Also the petroleum balance contracted to $14.5 billion in July from $14.7 billion the prior month. The services surplus was essentially unchanged at $19.6 billion.  Import news can at times provide insight into domestic demand.  This appears to be the case with July data.  Domestic demand may be stronger than earlier believed.  According to the Commerce Department, the July gap with China was a record. This could suggest an improvement in business sentiment for U.S. consumer demand in coming months-notably the holiday season.

 

International trade balance Consensus Forecast for August 13: -$40.6 billion

Range: -$42.0 billion to -$39.0 billion


 

The Markit PMI services flash index for August remained strong but moderated to 58.5 versus 61.0 in both the readings for final and mid-month July. Service businesses reported strength among both household and business clients as new business remained strong. Employment was up but only slightly though the general outlook is very strong.

 

Markit PMI services index (final) Consensus Forecast for September 14: 58.7

Range: 58.0 to 59.7


 

The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey for August showed extending acceleration with the index rising 0.9 points to 59.6 from an already very strong 58.7 in July.  The gain was led by the business index which rose 2.6 points to 65.0 in a reading that indicated exceptionally strong output. Employment was also a big plus, up 1.1 points to 57.1.  One reading was not so positive and that was new orders. Though coming in at 63.8, the rate of growth was down 1.1 points from July's 64.9.

 

ISM non-manufacturing composite index Consensus Forecast for September 14: 58.8

Range: 57.2 to 59.9


 

R. Mark Rogers is the author of The Complete Idiot's Guide to Economic Indicators, Penguin Books.


 

He can also be found on a weekly broadcast talking about the U.S. economy, the easiest way to find him is by going to iTunes and searching for "Simply Economics."


 

Econoday Senior Writer Mark Pender contributed to this article.