The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia Pacific Preview

China GDP Report to Show Trade War Effects

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Chinese data will be the highlight of the Asia-Pacific data calendar, with GDP data for the three months to June and monthly activity data for June scheduled for release. The GDP data cover the period that began with the escalation of global trade tensions and market volatility in early April and will complement previously published monthly data that have shown the initial impact of these developments. Next week's data may also likely be accompanied by further commentary from officials referring to these developments and may provide updated guidance on their policy response.

China will also publish trade data for June in the week ahead, as will Singapore and India. South Korea and Taiwan have already published trade data for June and both reported solid growth in exports though uncertainty about future tariff increases remain a risk for trade flows in the region. Singapore will publish GDP data ahead of a scheduled monetary policy meeting by the end of July.

After the surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave policy rates on hold at their meeting last week, Australian labour market data will be monitored for evidence that labour market conditions remain tight. Officials at that meeting cited uncertainty about near-term labour market conditions as a key factor driving their decision to refrain from adjusting policy settings this month.

Europe Preview

Is Europe Benefitting from US Trade Policy?

By Marco Babic, Econoday Economist

The coming week in Europe brings us the next round of trade data for the Eurozone, Italy and Switzerland, following on the heels of German trade data last week. A US imposed deadline for trade deals has been extended from July 9 to August 1, leaving countries guessing once again on what the US actually wants.

Last week, Germany recorded a trade surplus of 18.4 billion euros in May, an improvement over a 15.8 billion surplus in April, although below the 22.3 billion in May of last year. Exports to the US declined 7.7 percent from the previous month and were 13.8 percent below year-ago levels.

Interestingly, the RWI/ISL container throughput index rose in May, indicating trade is still robust. The measure rose to a seasonally adjusted 138.3 in May from 137.9 in April. US West Coast ports and Chinese container traffic was lower in May. The port of Long Beach, California says total container volume decline 8.2 percent from a year ago, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Loaded inbound containers fell 13.4 percent while outbound volume fell 18.6 percent. So, what is happening?

The North Range Index which measures activity at ports in Northern Europe and Germany rose to 117.4 in May from 115.9 in April. This suggests that while the US and China are slugging it out, China is redirecting its exports to Europe to avoid US tariffs.



The Eurozone and Italy report their trade data for May on Wednesday, with Switzerland reporting June results on Thursday. In May, Switzerland's trade surplus fell to 3.381 billion Swiss Francs from 6.325 billion in April. Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical exports will provide further insight into how trade could be faring more broadly.

Trade so far has shown a surprising resilience and trade reports could start to show realignments with more activity between Europe and China in the coming months.

US Preview

Heavy Data Week Ahead with Beige Book, Inflation, Retail Sales

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

There's plenty of important economic data on the calendar in the July 14 week. However, the thing that may prove most interesting is the next issue of the Fed's Beige Book at 14:00 ET on Wednesday covering the period for roughly late May through late June. The prior three Beige Books showed broad-based weakness consistent with an incoming recession. The value of the Beige Book is that it provides anecdotal evidence about current conditions across the 12 Fed district banks. It is a qualitative assessment that is usually backed up by the hard data. The Beige Book threw off some recession signals back in 2022 and 2023. The hot labor market kept the US economy from weakening while it recovered from supply chain disruptions and upward price pressures related fiscal stimulus. This time around, the labor market has cut back on hiring, and consumer and business spending has been exhausted by front-loading purchases ahead of expected tariffs. Given the high levels of uncertainty, that spending is not likely to be renewed in the near future.

June data on retail and food services sales for June at 8:30 ET on Thursday will determine if spending rebounded from the declines seen in May and April. In any case, retail spending in the second quarter 2025 is going to be less due to demand being depleted from the first quarter. In particular, spending on big ticket items like motor vehicles will keep the total dollar value of sales down. And the early timing of the Memorial Day observance in May could mean that some spending that normally would have reached into June will be absent.

The focus on the consumer price index (CPI) report for June at 8:30 ET Tuesday will be if the anticipated price increases from tariffs have begun to reach the consumer level. The size and timing of the new tariff policy was still unsettled in June, so it could well be another month of modest increases. In particular, energy prices are lower for June and could restrain inflation at the all-items level.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Japan Machinery Orders for May (Mon 0850 JST; Sun 2350 GMT; Sun 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.9%

Consensus Range, M/M: -4.2% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 7.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -3.0% to 10.0%

Key forecast points:

--Core machinery orders, the key indicator of business investment, down 0.9% m/m (some expect a slight rebound) vs. -9.1% in April, which was the first drop in three months; +7.1% y/y for an eighth straight rise vs. +6.6% in April. The focus is on whether subcontractors of the auto, steel and other industries that are directly hit by 25% Trump tariffs are reporting slower orders.

--April-June orders may turn out to be firmer than the official projection of -2.1% q/q vs. a solid +3.9% in Q1.

--The Bank of Japan's June quarter Tankan business survey showed that both large and smaller firms revised up their capex plans more than expected despite the uncertainty over global trade rows.

Singapore GDP for Second Quarter (Mon 0800 SGT; Mon 0000 GMT; Sun 2000 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.5%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.6%

The consensus sees growth slowing to 3.5 percent on year in Q2 versus 3.9 percent in Q1.

China Merchandise Trade for June (ANYTIME)

Consensus Forecast, Balance of Trade: $112.6 B

Consensus Range, Balance of Trade: $100.0 B to $117.0 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: 1.3% to 2.9%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 5.5%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 5.0% to 5.9%

The surplus is expected to widen to $112.6 billion in June from $103.2 billion in May.

India Wholesale Price Index for June (Mon 1200 IST; Mon 0630 GMT; Mon 0230 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.52%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.50% to 0.90%

WPI expected to tick up but remain muted at 0.52 percent on year for June from 0.39 percent in May.

India CPI for June (Mon 1600 IST; Mon 1030 GMT; Mon 0630 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.40%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.33% to 2.50%

Headline CPI expected lower at 2.40 percent on year in June versus 2.82 percent in May.

Tuesday

China Fixed Asset Investment for June (Tue 1000 CST; Tue 0200 GMT; Mon 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: 3.6%

Consensus Range, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: 3.6% to 4.5%

Forecasters see FAI growth year on year down a tick at 3.6 percent in June versus 3.7 percent in May.

China GDP for Second Quarter (Tue 1000 CST; Tue 0200 GMT; Mon 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.9%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.1% to 1.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.4% to 5.3%

Showing only muted effects from the trade war. Slightly slower growth seen at 0.9 percent on quarter in Q2 versus 1.2 percent in Q1. The consensus sees year on year growth at 5.1 percent in Q2 compared with 5.4 percent in Q2.

China Industrial Production for June (Tue 1000 CST; Tue 0200 GMT; Mon 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 5.5% to 5.8%

Growth in industrial production is seen declining to 5.6 percent on year in June from 5.8 percent in May.

China Retail Sales for June (Tue 1000 CST; Tue 0200 GMT; Mon 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.7% to 6.1%

The consensus sees annual growth in sales down to 5.2 percent in June versus 6.4 percent in May.

Eurozone Industrial Production for May (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.3% to 1.7%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.1% to 3.3%

Forecasters expect industrial output to rebound by 0.6 percent on month in May after falling 2.4 percent on the month in April. The call for the yearly change is an increase of 1.6 percent after 0.8 percent in April.

Germany ZEW Survey for July (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: -66

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: -71.0 to -66.0

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: 50.2

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: 45.1 to 55.0

Germany's improving trend continues with current conditions expected at minus 66 in July versus minus 72.0 in June. Economic sentiment is seen up again at 50.2 in July versus an already surprisingly strong 47.5 in June.

Canada Housing Starts for June (Tue 0815 EDT; Tue 1215 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 262.5K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 253K to 270K

Starts are expected to retreat to 262.5K in June from 280K in May.

Canada CPI for June (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: -0.3% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 1.9%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 1.5% to 2.0%

Forecasters see Canada CPI up 0.1 percent on the month and up 1.9 percent on year in June versus increases of 0.6 percent and 1.7 percent in May.

United States CPI for June (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: -0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.9% to 3.0%

Headline inflation is expected at 0.3 percent on month and 2.7 percent on year in June versus a rise of 0.1 percent and 2.4 percent on year in May. Core CPI is seen at 0.3 percent and 3.0 percent in June versus 0.1 percent and 2.8 percent in May.

Canada Manufacturing Sales for May (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.3% to -1.3%

Forecasters agree with the Statistics Canada preliminary estimate that sales fell 1.3 percent in May after dropping 2.8 percent in April.

United States Empire State Manufacturing Index for July (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -10.0

Consensus Range, Index: -13.0 to -6.9

Forecasters see contraction continuing with the index at minus 10.0 in July versus minus 16.0 in June.

Wednesday

United Kingdom CPI for June (Wed 0700 BST; Wed 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.2% to 3.5%

UK annual inflation seen unchanged at 3.4 percent in June versus 3.4 percent in May. Month on month, the consensus looks for another increase of 0.2 percent after rising 0.2 percent in May.

Italy CPI for June (Wed 1000 CET; Wed 0800 GMT; Wed 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.7% to 1.7%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 1.7% to 1.7%

Forecasters expect no revision from the flash at 0.2 percent on month and 1.7 percent on the year for June.

United States PPI-Final Demand for June (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, PPI-FD - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, PPI-FD - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, PPI - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, PPI - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.8%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.7% to 3.2%

The consensus sees PPI-FD up 0.2 percent on month in June and up 2.5 percent on year after an increase of 0.1 percent on month and 2.6 percent on year in May.

United States Industrial Production for June (Wed 0915 EDT; Wed 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Output - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Output - M/M: 0.0% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.4%

Consensus Range, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.2% to 77.5%

The consensus sees industrial output up 0.1 percent and manufacturing up 0.1 percent on the month with capacity utilization flat at 77.4 percent versus 77.4 percent in May.

Thursday

Japan Merchandise Trade for June (Thu 0850 JST; Wed 2350 GMT; Wed 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: ¥328.45 B

Consensus Range, Balance: ¥140.00 B to ¥440.10 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: -1.5%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: -2.7% to 1.0%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: -0.3%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: -2.2% to 1.5%

Key forecast points:

--Japanese export values -0.3% on year in June vs. -1.7% in May (the first drop in eight months but volumes were up for a second month in a row), possibly led by autos, iron and steel and auto parts in the face of 25% Trump tariffs. Japanese carmakers are reducing the prices for U.S. customers to cover higher import costs, leading to lower overall export prices.

--Import values -1.5% for a third straight drop vs. -7.7% in May (volumes were up for a third straight month) amid easing energy costs.

--The trade balance: a ¥328.45 billion trade surplus, the black ink in three months vs. a revised ¥638.56 billion deficit in May and a ¥221.35 billion surplus in June 2024.

Australia Labour Force Survey for June (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 23K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 10K to 45K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.1%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.1% to 4.2%

Australia expected to show a 23K increase in employment on the month in June. The jobless rate is expected steady at 4.1 percent from 4.1 percent in May.

United Kingdom Labour Market Report for June (Thu 0700 BST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.6%

Consensus Range, ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.6% to 4.6%

ILO unemployment is expected unchanged at 4.6 percent in June versus 4.6 percent in May.

Eurozone HICP for June (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 0900 GMT; Thu 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: % to %

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3% to 2.4%

HICP expected unrevised from the flash at 2.0 percent on year and 2.3 percent for narrow core.

United States Jobless Claims for Week 7/12 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 233K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 230K to 235K

Claims are projected at 233K in the latest week after declining more than expected to 5K to 227K in the previous week.

United States Retail Sales for June (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.1% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.1% to 0.2%

Retail sales have slowed as consumers remain wary. The consensus looks for sales up 0.1 percent in June with sales ex-autos up 0.3 percent and ex-autos and gas up 0.1 percent.

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -0.4

Consensus Range, Index: -5.0 to 6.7

The manufacturing barometer is expected at -0.4 in July versus minus 4.0 in June.

United States Import and Export Prices for June (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - M/M: -0.1% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - Y/Y: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - Y/Y: -0.1% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Export Prices - M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, Export Prices - M/M: -0.1% to 0.2%

The consensus sees import prices up 0.2 percent and export prices down 0.1 percent on the month.

United States Business Inventories for May (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1600 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.0%

Inventories expected flat on the month in May.

United States Housing Market Index for July (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 33

Consensus Range, Index: 31 to 33

The index is expected to remain depressed at 33 in July versus 32 in June and 41 in June 2024.

Friday

Japan CPI for June (Fri 0830 JST; Thu 2330 GMT; Thu 1930 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.3% to 3.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food -Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 3.3% to 3.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.2% to 3.4%

Key forecast points:

--Consumer inflation in Japan is expected to ease in two of the three key measures in June thanks to renewed subsidies to cap retail gasoline and heating oil prices but still above 3% amid high processed food prices, temporarily exceeding the Bank of Japan's long-run 2% price stability target. The pace of deceleration is unlikely to be so drastic as in the Tokyo CPI data released last month. The metropolitan area saw a plunge in water bills due to the metropolitan government's free base charge for four months that began in June.

--Core CPI (excluding fresh food) +3.4% y/y in June vs. +3.7% in May; Upward pressure on processed food prices in the aftermath of rice supply shortages is partly offset by slower gains in energy costs and the year-long price-cutting effect of free high school education that began on April 1; core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) +3.4% vs. +3.3%; total CPI +3.3% vs. +3.5% as fresh vegetable prices have stabilized after an earlier spike.

Germany PPI for June (Fri 0800 CEST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -1.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -1.4% to -1.2%

The consensus sees no change on the month in June and a decline of 1.3 percent on year.

United States Housing Starts and Permits for June (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.300 M

Consensus Range, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.230 M to 1.350 M

Consensus Forecast, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.380 M

Consensus Range, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.300 M to 1.430 M

Starts expected to edge up to 1.300 million unit rate in June from a sluggish 1.256 million in May.

United States Consumer Sentiment for July (Fri 1000 EDT; Fri 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 61.4

Consensus Range, Index: 56.2 to 66.0

Sentiment expected up slightly to 61.4 in the first reading for July from 60.7 in the June final.