The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

China Activity Data in Focus

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Monthly Chinese activity data for November will be the main focus of the Asia-Pacific data calendar. Official PMI surveys have shown ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sectored near-stagnant conditions in the non-manufacturing sector in November. Trade data published this week showed a rebound in exports. At their annual economic work conference held this week, senior officials pledged to keep fiscal policy "more proactive" and monetary policy" moderately loose" in 2026.

The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) holds its quarterly policy meeting. Its main policy rate has been on hold at 2.00 percent since early 2024, and this policy stability will likely be extended next week, with recent data showing contained inflation and strong export growth.

New Zealand reports GDP and trade data but these are unlikely to shape expectations about the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting, which will not be until mid-February after the release of inflation data. India will also report inflation and trade data next week.

Europe Preview

Big Indicators Week Ahead; ECB Seen on Hold

By Marco Babic, Econoday Economist

Europe's main even is the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday. But there are also other top-shelf indicators set for release including Germany's Ifo and ZEW reports and consumer confidence. Trade data for the Eurozone, Italy, and Switzerland are also on offer.

The ECB has kept its policy steady following its subsequent meetings to June 5 when it last opted to lower official rates by 25 basis points. Since then, he refinancing rate has been held at 2.15 percent and the deposit rate at 2.00%. With its data driven approach, the central bank is unlikely to lower rates with inflation well within the desired target range.

Germany's ZEW investor sentiment report on Tuesday and Ifo's business confidence index on Wednesday, both for December, will give a first reading of how the last month of the year is shaping up. In November, ZEW's economic sentiment index contracted to 38.5 from 49.3. The Ifo business climate index fell to 88.1 in November from 88.4, while the expectations component fell to 90.6 from 91.6. There is little to suggest that the situation will be better in December.

France and Italy also report business sentiment next week on Thursday and Friday, respectively. French businesses were marginally more pessimistic in November, while their Italian counterparts were more upbeat.

Switzerland reports its trade results for November on Thursday but will unlikely reflect the impact of the trade agreement reached with the US lowering tariffs from 39 percent to 15 percent. In recent months the watch industry has been hit particularly hard as have the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. For the Eurozone and Italy, their trade reports for October could show a somewhat of a normalization with the European Union having reached a trade deal, albeit an unpopular one in Europe, with the US earlier than the Swiss government.

Over the past year, US trade policy has loomed large over Europe's economies. Still an unknown is how the US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of tariffs. Should they indeed be deemed illegal, it will be a welcome development for Europe, although there is most likely to be added uncertainty and volatility around such a development, and President Trump is widely expected to find other ways to keep his tariffs in place.

US Preview

Markets Eye Key US Employment Report

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The data release schedule continues to catch up, but the process will not be completed until February.

In the December 15 week, the big piece of the labor market data is the November monthly employment report on Tuesday at 8:30 ET. The December employment report will be released on Friday, January 9 as originally scheduled. The data in the establishment survey for payrolls will include the cancelled October employment report, while the household survey will have no data for October and pick up again for November.

November can be a solid month for hiring as typically soon-to-be-college graduates find jobs and some businesses act to fill open spots before the end of a budget year. However, November 2025 comes on the heels of the longest federal government shutdown which intensified the current economic uncertainty. It is probable that normal seasonal adjustment patterns are going to be thrown off. It remains to be seen if hiring rebounded after the shutdown or if businesses remain wary about adding to payrolls. The November unemployment rate is likely to be higher than 4.4 percent in September. How much higher depends on if job cut plans are more about eliminating unfilled positions or if more workers are losing jobs.

Note: The Labor Department has said, "BLS will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data from the Current Population Survey were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively. For both surveys, the collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, and extra processing time will be needed."

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Japan Tankan for Fourth Quarter (Mon 0850 JST; Sun 2350 GMT; Sun 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Large Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 15

Consensus Range, Large Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 13 to 16

Consensus Forecast, Large Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 34

Consensus Range, Large Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 33 to 36

Consensus Forecast, Small Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 1

Consensus Range, Small Manufacturer Sentiment Index: -1 to 3

Consensus Forecast, Small Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 14

Consensus Range, Small Non-Manufacturer Sentiment Index: 12 to 15

FY Current, 2025

Consensus Forecast, Large Firms Capital Expenditure Plans: 12.2%

Consensus Range, Large Firms Capital Expenditure Plans: 10.0% to 13.4%

Consensus Forecast, Small Firms Capital Expenditure Plans: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Small Firms Capital Expenditure Plans: -1.1% to 2.9%

The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a slight improvement among major manufacturers in the December quarter, supported by the yen's continued weakness and solid global demand tied to artificial intelligence. At the same time, the negative effects of the Trump tariffs are expected to continue to surface, keeping the overall outlook cautious.

Business sentiment among small manufacturers, as well as among both large and small non-manufacturers, is expected to remain largely unchanged from the September survey.

The Tankan diffusion index for major manufacturers is forecast at 15, up from 14 in September and seen marking the third straight quarterly increase. The index measuring sentiment among major non-manufacturers is projected to remain steady at 34.

The index for smaller manufacturers is forecast to hold at 1 from September, while that for small non-manufacturers is also expected to be unchanged at 14. The BOJ will release the results of its Tankan survey, conducted from around mid-November to mid-December, at 0850 JST on Monday, December 15 (1850 EST / 2350 GMT on Sunday, December 14).

China Fixed Asset Investment for November (Mon 1000 CST; Mon 0200 GMT; Sun 2100 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: -2.3%

Consensus Range, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: -2.8% to -2.0%

After dropping by an unheard-of 2.2 percent in October, the November call looks for no recovery with a drop of 2.3 percent. It's shocking to see declines in this series after years of rapid growth.

China Industrial Production for November (Mon 1000 CST; Mon 0200 GMT; Sun 2100 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 5.0% to 5.4%

The consensus sees output up 5.0 percent on year after rising 4.9 percent in October

China Retail Sales for November (Mon 1000 CST; Mon 0200 GMT; Sun 2100 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.7% to 3.3%

Forecasters expect sales up a very modest 2.9 percent on year, same as in October.

Eurozone Industrial Production for October (Mon 1100 CET; Mon 1000 GMT; Mon 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.7%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.3% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.8%

Output is seen up a strong 0.7 percent on the month in October and up 1.7 percent on year versus increases of 0.2 percent and 1.2 percent in September.

Canada Housing Starts for November (Mon 0815 EST; Mon 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 241K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 229K to 255K

After dipping to 233K in October, starts expected to recover to 241K in November.

Canada CPI for November (Mon 0830 EST; Mon 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.0% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.3%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.2% to 2.3%

CPI expected up 0.1 percent on month in November and 2.3 percent on year after gains of 0.2 percent and 2.2 percent in October.

Canada Manufacturing Sales for October (Mon 0830 EST; Mon 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.1% to -1.0%

The consensus agrees with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate calling for sales to fall back 1.1 percent in October after a big 3.3 percent rise in September.

US Empire State Manufacturing Index for December (Mon 0830 EST; Mon 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 10.0

Consensus Range, Index: 5.0 to 15.4

The consensus sees moderate but slower growth at 10.0 for December versus 18.7 in November.

US Housing Market Index for December (Mon 1000 EST; Mon 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 39

Consensus Range, Index: 37 to 40

The consensus sees the index up to 39 in December from 38 in November.

Tuesday

UK Labour Market Report for November (Tue 0700 GMT; Tue 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.1%

Consensus Range, ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.1% to 5.1%

Consensus Forecast, Average Earnings - Y/Y: 4.5%

Consensus Range, Average Earnings - Y/Y: 4.5% to 4.5%

The ILO jobless rate expected at 5.1 percent in November versus 5.0 percent in October. Earnings including bonus are seen softer at up 4.5 percent after 4.8 percent in October.

France PMI Composite Flash for December (Tue 0930 CET; Tue 0830 GMT; Tue 0330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 48.9

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 48.5 to 48.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.5

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.3 to 51.5

Manufacturing seen a bit better but still contracting at 48.9 versus 47.8 in November. Services expected nearly flat at 51.5 versus 51.4 in November

Germany PMI Composite Flash for December (Tue 0930 CET; Tue 0830 GMT; Tue 0330 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 48.7

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 48.4 to 48.9

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.0

Consensus Range, Services Index: 52.5 to 53.4

Manufacturing seen at 48.7 in the December flash versus 48.2 in November. Services expected at 53.0 versus 53.1 in November.

Eurozone PMI Composite Flash for December (Tue 1000 CET; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 52.8

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 52.4 to 53.6

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.8

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.6 to 50.1

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.2

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.0 to 54.0

The composite is expected at 52.8 in the December flash versus 52.8 in November final. Manufacturing seen at 49.8 versus 49.6 in November. Services expected at 53.2 versus 53.6 in November.

Italy CPI for November (Tue 1100 CET; Tue 1000 GMT; Tue 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to -0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.2% to 1.2%

The consensus sees no revision from the flash at minus 0.2 percent on the month and plus 1.2 percent on year for November.

UK PMI Composite Flash for December (Tue 0930 GMT; Tue 0430 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 51.6

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 51.4 to 51.9

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 50.8

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 50.2 to 51.2

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.8

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.5 to 52.0

The composite is expected at 51.6 in the December flash versus 51.2 in November final. Manufacturing seen at 50.8 versus 50.2 in November. Services expected at 51.8 versus 51.3 in November.

Germany ZEW Survey for December (Tue 1100 CET; Tue 1000 GMT; Tue 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: -78.4

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: -81.8 to -76.6

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: 39.3

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: 34.0 to 45.0

Only modest improvement expected with current conditions at minus 78.4 for December versus minus 78.7 in November. Sentiment expected at 39.3 versus 38.5 in November.

US Employment Situation for November (Tue 0830 EST; Tue 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 40K

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: -20K to 100K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.5%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.4% to 4.7%

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 30K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 0K to 45K

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: -5K

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: -12K to -3K

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.6%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.6% to 3.8%

Consensus Forecast, Average Workweek: 34.2

Consensus Range, Average Workweek: 34.1 to 34.3

The consensus for payrolls calls for a gain of 40K for November with the jobless rate up to 4.5 percent.

US Housing Starts and Permits for November (Tue 0830 EST; Tue 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.325 M

Consensus Range, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.310 M to 1.350 M

Consensus Forecast, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.345 M

Consensus Range, Permits - Annual Rate: 1. 310 M to 1.370

The call for November is a 1.325 million unit rate. Permits are seen at a 1.345 million unit rate.

US PMI Composite Flash for December (Tue 0945 EST; Tue 1445 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 52.0

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 52.0 to 52.5

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 53.9

Consensus Range, Services Index: 53.0 to 55.1

Manufacturing is seen at 52.0 versus 52.2 and services at 53.9 versus 54.1.

US Business Inventories for September (Tue 1000 EST; Tue 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.2%

Inventories seen up 0.2 percent on the month.

Wednesday

Japan Merchandise Trade for November (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: ¥47.60 B

Consensus Range, Balance: ¥-17.00 B to ¥128.30 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 0.5%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: -1.4% to 3.9%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 2.6%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 0.4% to 5.0%

Japan's export values are expected to rise for the third consecutive year-on-year increase in November, supported by robust demand from Europe and Asia and aided by the yen's continued weakness.

Export values are forecast to increase 2.6 percent on the year in November following a 3.6 percent gain in October, when exports to both Europe and Asia rose for the third straight month, while shipments to the U.S. fell for the seventh consecutive month.

Import values are also expected to rise for the third straight month, with an estimated 0.5 percent increase in November following a 0.7 percent gain in October and a 3.3 percent rebound in September.

Taking these factors together, the trade balance is projected to post its first surplus in five months, estimated at a modest surplus of ¥47.6 billion after a revised ¥226.07 billion deficit in October and a ¥499.95 billion deficit in October 2024.

Japan Machinery Orders for October (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1850 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -2.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: -5.0% to 2.7%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 0.6% to 11.6%

Japan's core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to return to a downward path in October, as the impact of a major one-off order from the chemical industry in the previous month fades.

Core machinery orders are expected to fall 2.6 percent on the month in October, after posting their first month-on-month increase in three months in September, when they rose a solid 4.2 percent.

On a year-on-year basis, core orders excluding those from electric utilities and for ships are projected to rise 3.6 percent, which would mark the 13th straight month of increase, after jumping 11.6 percent in September and sharply beating the median economist forecast of a 7.6 percent rise.

UK CPI for November (Wed 0700 GMT; Wed 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.4% to 3.5%

Numbers reassuring enough as inflation recedes enough to allow a rate cut Thursday. UK annual inflation seen at 3.5 percent in November after 3.6 percent in October. Month on month, the consensus looks for a lovely 0.0 percent after a 0.4 percent increase in October.

Germany Ifo Survey for December (Wed 1000 CET; Wed 0900 GMT; Wed 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Business Climate: 88.2

Consensus Range, Business Climate: 87.3 to 88.5

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: 85.7

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: 85.0 to 86.5

Consensus Forecast, Business Expectations: 90.6

Consensus Range, Business Expectations: 89.6 to 90.9

Business climate expected almost flat at 88.2 versus 88.1 in the prior month. Current conditions seen at 85.7 versus 85.6 and expectations unchanged at 90.6 versus 90.6.

Eurozone HICP for November (Wed 1100 CET; Wed 1000 GMT; Wed 0500 EST)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.2% to 2.2%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.4%

The consensus sees no revision from the flash at 2.2 percent on year with narrow core unchanged at 2.4 percent.

US Retail Sales for November (Wed 0830 EST; Wed 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.5% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.1% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.1% to 0.4%

Modest increases expected with sales up 0.2 percent.

US Business Inventories for October (Wed 1000 EST; Wed 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.3%

Inventories seen up 0.2 percent on the month.

Thursday

New Zealand GDP for Third Quarter (Thu 0700 NZDT; Wed 1800 GMT; Wed 1300 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.9%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.5% to 0.9%

The consensus sees the economy bouncing back by 0.9 percent in Q3 from Q2 after declining by 0.9 percent on quarter in Q2 as volatility remains.

France Business Climate Indicator for December (Thu 0845 CET; Thu 0745 GMT; Thu 0245 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 98

Consensus Range, Index: 97 to 98

No change expected at 98.

UK BoE Announcement & Minutes (Thu 1200 BST; Thu 1100 GMT; Thu 0700 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: -25 bp

Consensus Range, Change: -25 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 3.75%

Consensus Range, Level: 4.00% to 3.75%

The consensus expects the BOE to cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points as enough MPC members will be convinced inflation is coming down alongside a tighter fiscal budget.

Eurozone ECB Announcement (Thu 1415 CET; Thu 1315 GMT; Thu 0815 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Refi Rate Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Refi Rate Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Refi Rate Level: 2.15%

Consensus Range, Refi Rate Level: 2.15% to 2.15%

Consensus Forecast, Deposit Rate Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Deposit Rate Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Deposit Rate Level: 2.00%

Consensus Range, Deposit Rate Level: 2.00% to 2.00%

Forecasters see the ECB keeping rates on hold through 2026.

US CPI for November (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.9% to 3.2%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.1%

CPI for November expected up 0.3 percent on the month and 0.3 percent for the core from October. On year, the call is up 3.1 percent and up 3.0 percent core.

US Jobless Claims for Week 12/13 (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 225K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 215K to 230K

Claims are expected to retreat to 225K after surging to 236K last week from 192K a week before. The report has been volatile as the data series struggles to account for holidays like Thanksgiving. Claims suggest stability with the four-week moving average at 216.75K, not a troubling figure.

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for December (Thu 0830 EST; Thu 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 2.2

Consensus Range, Index: -5.0 to 8.0

The index is expected barely in expansion territory above 0 at 2.2 for December versus a marginally contractionary minus 1.7 in November.

Friday

Japan CPI for November (Fri 0830 JST; Thu 2330 GMT; Thu 1830 EST)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.9%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.1%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.1%

Japan's nationwide consumer inflation is expected to remain little changed at around 3.0 percent on the year in November, staying well above the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target. Upward pressure continues from strong food and energy prices, as well as a renewed uptrend in electricity bills following the government's termination of subsidies two months ago. At the same time, signs of declining retail prices at supermarkets are likely to limit the pace of overall inflation during the month.

The core CPI, excluding fresh food, is forecast to rise 3.0 percent on the year in November, steady from October and following a 2.9 percent gain in September. This will be the 51st straight month of year-on-year increases. The total CPI is expected to rise 2.9 percent, compared with 3.0 percent in October and 2.9 percent in September. Underlying inflation, measured by the core-core CPI that excludes both fresh food and energy, is projected rise 3.0 percent, after a 3.1 percent increase in October and a 3.0 percent gain in September.

Japan Bank of Japan Announcement (Fri 1130 JST; Fri 0230 GMT; Thu 2130 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 25bp

Consensus Range, Change: 25bp to 25bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 0.75%

Consensus Range, Level: 0.75% to 0.75%

At its Dec. 18-19 meeting, the Bank of Japan's nine-member board is expected to decide either unanimously or in a majority vote to raise the target for the overnight interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) to 0.75 percent after standing pat in the previous six meetings, encouraged by reduced uncertainty over how the protectionist U.S. trade policy will hurt global and domestic growth and by early signs that many firms plan to continue raising wages at a solid pace into fiscal 2026.

Less than two weeks to the December meeting, Governor Kazuo Ueda on Dec. 1 dropped a clear hint that the board is ready to make another gradual step toward normalizing the bank's monetary policy that is still deemed supportive to economic activity. "At the meeting, we will examine and discuss economic activity and prices at home and abroad as well as developments in financial and capital markets...and will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate," he told business leaders in Nagoya, a central Japan manufacturing and commercial hub.

Germany GfK Consumer Climate for January (Fri 1000 CET; Fri 0900 GMT; Fri 0400 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -23.0

Consensus Range, Index: -23.2 to -17.0

Consumer sentiment index expected pretty steady at minus 23.0 in January versus minus 23.2 in December.

Germany PPI for November (Fri 0800 CET; Fri 0700 GMT; Fri 0200 EST)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -2.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -2.2% to -2.0%

The consensus sees wholesale prices up 0.1 percent on month and down 2.1 percent on year in November.

Canada Retail Sales for October (Fri 0830 EST; Fri 1330 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.0%

The consensus sees sales unchanged in October from September, in line with the preliminary estimate.

US Existing Home Sales for November (Fri 1000 EST; Fri 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 4.15M

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 4.10M to 4.25M

Sales seen marginally better at 4.15 million in November after 4.10 in October.

Eurozone EC Consumer Confidence Flash for December (Fri 1600 CET; Fri 1500 GMT; Fri 1000 EST)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -14.0

Consensus Range, Index: -14.2 to -13.5

The consensus looks for the index at minus 14.0 in December versus minus 14.2 in November.

US Consumer Sentiment for December (Fri 1000 EST; Fri 1500 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 53.4

Consensus Range, Index: 53.3 to 55.0

The final December reading on consumer sentiment is expected one tick higher at 53.4 from 53.3 in the preliminary December report. That may be up from 51.0 in November but these are very weak and troubling readings, down 28 percent from a year ago.