The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Chinese GDP, Australia's Jobs Report Ahead

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Chinese data will be the main highlight of the Asia-Pacific data calendar with GDP data for the three months to March and monthly activity data for March scheduled for release. These data may show some initial impact from the Iran conflict and will complement previously published PMI survey data that showed subdued conditions in March. The data may also be accompanied by commentary from officials referring to the Iran conflict and may provide some guidance on their policy response.

China will also publish trade data for March, as will Singapore. Singapore will publish GDP data next week ahead of a scheduled policy meeting.

After the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to increase policy rates last month, Australian labour market data will be another key focus. Officials at that meeting noted that labour market conditions have tightened recently, reinforcing their concerns about the inflation outlook. Business and consumer confidence surveys for Australia will also be published next month and will indicate the impact on sentiment of the RBA's latest rate hike.

Europe Preview

Will Final European CPI Figures Show Further Acceleration?

By Marco Babic, Econoday Economist

In the week ahead in Europe, final CPI results are coming for a number of countries, and also the overall figure for the Eurozone. In the case of the latter, flash results showed consumer prices rising 2.5 percent year-on-year in March after 1.9 percent in February. The core rate slowed to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent the month before.

While the final readings often validate the flash estimate, the results are of increased interest due to the situation in the Middle East. A deviation from the flash readings of 0.2 percent or more would be notable since it would show a rapid rate of inflation.

Eurostat will also report trade figures for February, but they won't show the impact of the conflict until the March results are reported. While the US tariffs were deemed illegal, the US administration is seeking other ways to impose them, which will be contributing further uncertainty.

Even if the current fragile cease fire holds, crude oil shipments will still take some time to get back to levels where they were before, adding further strain to oil-dependent economies.

ECB Minutes

The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its last policy meeting. Already in the statement following their March gathering, they cited the conflict in the Middle East as being inflationary and having the potential to dampen growth.

Due out on Thursday, the minutes will possibly give some further details into the position of the Governing Council.

In any case, there are real risks arising that the combination of rising prices and slowing economic growth could usher in a new period of stagflation.

US Preview

Beige Book in Focus for Early View of Energy Shock's Effects

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The most important report in the April 13 week may prove to be the Fed's Beige Book at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. The contents will be some of the most recent information about conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts and will inform the decision on the next steps in monetary policy at the FOMC meeting on April 28-29.

There were signs of softening in overall economic condition in the prior report for the period of about early January through mid-February. The upcoming report will cover roughly the period between late February through early April and will encompass the initial reactions to the economic shocks of the war on Iran begun on February 28. This will include the surge in energy prices and some immediate response where prices were hiked to cover higher costs, such as in the transportation sector. The report will also encapsulate conditions in the labor market and for wage pressures. The labor market is expected to look soft, but stable. Wage gains should still be present, if somewhat less, except for skilled workers in high demand like in the healthcare sector.

The March report for the final-demand PPI is at 8:30 ET on Tuesday and the import and export price indexes at 8:30 ET on Wednesday. These will both reflect the same pressure from energy prices that hit commodities costs in the March CPI report and which are likely to carry into April and beyond for transportation services.

Congress returns from its spring working period on Monday. It is possible there will be some movement in schedules the Fed chair's semiannual monetary policy testimony and/or the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh as a Fed governor and its next chair.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

US Existing Home Sales for March (Mon 1000 EDT; Mon 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 4.08 M

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 3.95 M to 4.18 M

Forecasters see sales nearly stable at an annual 4.08 million versus 4.09 million in February.

Tuesday

Singapore GDP for First Quarter (Tue 0800 SGT; Tue 0000 GMT; Mon 1900 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 5.0% to 6.1%

The consensus sees slower growth at 5.6 percent on year in Q1 versus 6.9 percent in Q4.

China Merchandise Trade for March (ANYTIME)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: $108.0 B

Consensus Range, Balance: $105 B to $119.1 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 14.9%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: 10.1% to 14.9%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 10.3%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 3.5% to 15.5%

The surplus is expected at $108 billion for March.

Sweden CPI for March (Tue 0800 CEST; Tue 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 0.6%

The consensus sees CPI up 0.6 percent on year in March, up from 0.5 percent in February.

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March (Tue 0600 EDT; Tue 1000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 97.5

Consensus Range, Index: 96.3 to 98.5

The consensus looks for the index to fall back to 97.5 in March from 98.8 in February as rising energy prices hit sentiment.

US PPI-Final Demand for March (Tue 0830 EDT; Tue 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, PPI-FD - M/M: 1.2%

Consensus Range, PPI-FD - M/M: 1.0% to 2.3%

Consensus Forecast, PPI - Y/Y: 4.7%

Consensus Range, PPI - Y/Y: 4.1% to 5.9%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3% to 0.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 4.2%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.7% to 4.3%

A hideous 1.2 percent one-month rise in PPI-FD is the expectation based on surging energy costs. Ex-food & energy, the consensus sees 0.5 percent on the month, not a pretty picture. On year, the consensus sees total PPI-FD up 4.7 percent and up 4.2 percent ex-food & energy.

Wednesday

Japan Machinery Orders for February (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -2.0% to 3.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 12.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 7.5% to 14.0%

Japan's core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to edge down 0.1 percent in February, marking a second straight monthly decline after a 5.5 percent drop in January.

Still, the underlying trend in machinery orders is seen as firm, supported by demand for machine tools. The impact of heightened Middle East tensions following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February is viewed as having had only a limited effect on orders. Orders are also likely to be underpinned by steady services-sector demand for computers, driven by ongoing automation and digitalization efforts to ease labor shortages.

On a year-on-year basis, machinery orders are expected to rise for a third straight month in February, increasing 12.0 percent after a 13.7 percent gain in January.

India WPI for March (Wed 0830 CEST; Wed 0630GMT; Wed 0230 EDT

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.40%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.04% to 3.5%

The consensus sees wholesale prices up 3.40 percent on year in March versus 2.13 percent in February.

France CPI for March (Wed 0845 CEST; Wed 0645 GMT; Wed 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.9%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.9% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.7% to 1.7%

The consensus looks for no revision from the flash at 0.9 percent on month and 1.7 percent on year for March.

Eurozone Industrial Production for February (Wed 1100 CEST; Wed 0900 GMT; Wed 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -1.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -1.6% to -1.4%

Output expected to rebound by 0.4 percent in February after falling 1.5 percent on month in January. Output still seen down 1.0 percent on year after falling by 1.2 percent in January.

India CPI for March (Wed 1600 IST; Wed 1030 GMT; Wed 0630 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.43%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 3.40% to 3.48%

CPI seen up 3.43 percent on year in March after 3.21 percent in February.

Canada Manufacturing Sales for February (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 3.8%

Consensus Range, M/M: 3.5% to 3.8%

Forecasters agree with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate calling for sales to rebound by 3.8 percent on the month in February after dropping 3.0 percent in January.

US Empire State Manufacturing Index for April (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -2.0

Consensus Range, Index: -3.1 to 3.3

Manufacturing seen sluggish with the index barely in contraction territory at minus 2.0 for April, down from an already unimpressive minus 0.2 in March.

US Imports and Export Prices for March (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - M/M: 2.1%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - M/M: 0.4% to 2.9%

Consensus Forecast, Export Prices - M/M: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Export Prices - M/M: 1.0% to 3.2%

The consensus sees rising fuel costs lifting import prices by 2.1 percent and export prices by 1.7 percent on the month!

US Housing Market Index for April (Wed 1000 EDT; Wed 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 37

Consensus Range, Index: 36 to 38

Homebuilder sentiment remains depressed with the index seen at 37 in April, down from 38 in March.

Thursday

Australia Labour Force Survey for March (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 17.8K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 5K to 35K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.3%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.1% to 4.4%

Forecasters see a moderate 17,800 increase in employment for the first part of March with the ill effects of the energy price shock yet to appear. No change expected in the jobless rate at 4.3 percent.

China Fixed Asset Investment for March (Thu 1000 CST; Thu 0200 GMT; Wed 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: 1.9%

Consensus Range, Year to Date on Y/Y Basis: 1.8% to 2.0%

Stable growth expected with FAI up 1.9 percent versus 1.8 percent in February.

China GDP for First Quarter (Thu 1000 CST; Thu 0200 GMT; Wed 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 1.4%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.8% to 1.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 4.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.6% to 5.0%

Moderate growth is the call with GDP up 4.8 percent on year in Q1 versus 4.5 percent in Q4.

China Industrial Production for March (Thu 1000 CST; Thu 0200 GMT; Wed 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.8% to 6.3%

The consensus sees output up 5.4 percent on year in March.

China Retail Sales for March (Thu 1000 CST; Thu 0200 GMT; Wed 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.1% to 3.5%

Annual sales growth seen at 2.4 percent in March versus 2.8 percent in February.

UK Monthly GDP for February (Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.15%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.2%

The consensus looks for very modest growth at 0.15 percent on the month.

Italy CPI for March (Thu 1000 CEST; Thu 0800 GMT; Thu 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.5% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.7% to 1.7%

No revision expected from the flash for the final at 0.5 percent on month and 1.7 percent on year in March.

Eurozone HICP for March (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 0900 GMT; Thu 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 1.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 1.2% to 1.2%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.5%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3% to 2.3%

No revision expected from the flash at 1.2 percent on month and 2.5 percent on year.

US Jobless Claims for Week 04/11 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 215K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 209K to 230K

Claims seen back down at 215K after jumping by 16k to 219K in previous week.

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 12.0

Consensus Range, Index: 7.0 to 20.3

Index seen down in April but still solidly in expansion at 12.0 versus 18.1 in March.

US Industrial Production for March (Thu 0915 EDT; Thu 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.3% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Output - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Output - M/M: -0.5% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Capacity Utilization Rate: 76.3%

Consensus Range, Capacity Utilization Rate: 76.1% to 76.7%

Modest increase in industrial output expected at 0.1 percent with manufacturing up 0.3 percent and capacity utilization flat at 76.3 percent for March.

Friday

Canada Housing Starts for March (Fri 0815 EDT; Fri 1215 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 240K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 230K to 250K

Starts expected softer at 240K in March versus 251K in February.