The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Inflation Reports to Show Mideast Impact on Fuel Prices

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

Three Asia-Pacific nations report inflation data in the week ahead, providing updated information about the impact of higher fuel prices and supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict.

Previously published quarterly CPI data for New Zealand showed headline inflation was above the Reserve Bank New Zealands  target range of two percent to three percent for the second consecutive quarter in the three months to March, and the weeks data may show that the Iran conflict has kept inflation above target. Earlier this month, the RBNZ increased policy rates by 25 basis points, with officials noting that the outlook for medium-term inflation pressures remains uncertain. Next weeks data will likely shape expectations for the RBNZs next policy meeting in early September. New Zealand also reports trade data next week.

Hong Kong CPI data will likely show relatively steady price pressures, but the Singapore CPI release will be a bigger focus. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is scheduled to hold its quarterly policy review no later than the end of July and is likely to wait for the June inflation data before reviewing policy. Singapore headline inflation rose in March but has since stabilised, while core inflation have been relatively steady in recent months.

Australian labor market data will be watched for evidence of the impact of policy rate hikes in recent months. The Reserve Bank of Australia left policy rates on hold last month after three consecutive increases, with officials expecting that the unemployment rate is likely to increase as economic activity cools. Next weeks data could be impacted to some extent by hiring ahead of the national census in early August.

South Korea will publish preliminary GDP estimates for the three months to June, while monthly industrial production data for Taiwan will likely show further evidence of strong AI-related demand. The flash PMI survey for India will provide an early indicate in of conditions in July, while the monthly review of the loan prime rate by the Peoples Bank of China will likely extend the stability place since last May.

US Preview

Housing Market in Focus as Sales Stay Soft

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The communications blackout period around the July 28-29 FOMC meeting goes into effect at midnight on Saturday, July 18 and runs through midnight on Thursday, July 30. The only Fed speaker about monetary policy will be Chair Kevin Warsh after the meeting on July 29.

The US Congress will be busy trying to complete work before the August recess begins.

The economic data calendar in the week ending July 24 is light and with little for markets to focus on other than Warshs semiannual monetary policy testimony in the prior week and the outcome of the FOMC meeting in the following week.

The Friday report on sales of new single-family homes in June is likely to complete the picture of a housing market that was disappointed by the pace of sales in the spring buying season even if housing starts rebounded in June. Potential homeowners have been put off by high prices and low inventories of affordable units, an uncertain economic outlook, and sensitivity to even slight increase in mortgage rates. Consumers remain wary in an economy where growth does not seem to be reaching them and inflation has yet to meaningfully recede since energy prices jumped in March.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

China Loan Prime Rate for July (Mon 0915 CST; Mon 0115 GMT; Sunday 2115 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.00%

Consensus Range, 1-Year Rate - Level: 3.0% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.50%

Consensus Range, 5-Year Rate - Level: 3.50% to 3.50%

The PBOC is expected to hold its fire on rates again even as the economy slows.

Germany PPI for June (Mon 0800 CEST; Mon 0600 GMT; Mon 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.6% to -0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.5% to 1.8%

Wholesale prices expected to fade with the consensus looking for PPI down 0.3 percent on the month in June after rising 0.3 percent in May. Year on year expected up 1.8 percent in June versus 2.2 percent in May.

Canada CPI for June (Mon 0830 EDT; Mon 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to -0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.0%

Consensus Forecast, Core CPI - Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, Core CPI - Y/Y: 1.7% to 2.3%

Falling fuel prices expected to dampen CPI in June with the annual rise seen at 3.0 percent versus 3.2 percent in May.

US Leading Index for June (Mon 0830 EDT; Mon 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.2%

The leading index is expected flat in June after rising 0.1 percent in May.

Tuesday

UK Labour Market Report for July (Tue 0700 BST; Tue 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 5.0%

Consensus Range, ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.9% to 5.0%

The jobless rate is seen up at 5.0 percent in July versus 4.9 percent in June.

Germany ZEW Survey for July (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: -78

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: -78 to -76

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: 18

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: 7 to 18

Sentiment seen rising to 18 in July from 10.5 in June.

Wednesday

Japan Merchandise Trade for June (Wed 0850 JST; Tue 2350 GMT; Tue 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -47.25 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -345.10 B to 150.50 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 20.0%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: 15.8% to 26.0%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 18.0%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 15.0% to 20.6%

Japanese exports are expected to rise for a 10th straight month from a year earlier in June, while imports are seen rising for a fifth consecutive month as the resource-poor country continues to diversify its crude oil purchases away from the Middle East. Robust imports, coupled with a weaker yen against the dollar, are expected to leave the trade balance in a modest deficit for a second straight month.

Exports are forecast to increase 18.0% from a year earlier in June after rising a revised 16.8% in May. The annual increase in May was driven by shipments of computer chips, automobiles and non-ferrous metals.

Japan's exports have remained resilient despite heightened geopolitical tensions that have fueled concerns over raw material supplies and the global economic outlook. Shipments also continued to grow across all major destinations, including the United States, showing little sign of slowing despite ongoing trade disputes stemming from Trump tariffs and worsening diplomatic relations with China.

Imports are projected to increase 20.0% from a year earlier in June after rising 12.5% in May, when purchases of computer chips, smartphones and non-ferrous metal ores led the gains. The trend appears to have continued in June, with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) data released on July 7 showing that imports during the first 20 days of the month rose 21.5% from the same period a year earlier.

As a result, the trade balance is expected to post a modest deficit of 47.25 billion yen in June after recording a revised deficit of 391.79 billion yen in May. The MOF data showed that the trade balance for the first 20 days of June registered a deficit of 552.6 billion yen, widening 73.1% from a deficit of 319.2 billion yen in the same period of 2025.

UK CPI for June (Wed 0700 BST; Wed 0600 GMT; Wed 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.7%

Consensus Forecast, Core CPI - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Core CPI - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.7%

CPI expected up 0.1 percent on month and 2.7 percent on year in June versus 0.2 percent and 2.8 percent in May.

Thursday

South Korea GDP for Second Quarter (Thu 0800 KST; Wed 2300 GMT; Wed 1900 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.8%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.3% to 1.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.9% to 4.2%

GDP growth seen slower at 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.6 percent on year in Q2 after 1.8 percent and 3.8 percent in Q1.

Australia Labour Force Survey for June (Thu 1130 AET; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 15.6K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 0K to 50K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.3% to 4.5%

Employment expected up 15,600 and unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4 percent in June.

France Business Climate Indicator for July (Thu 0845 CEST; Thu 0645 GMT; Thu 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 94

Consensus Range, Index: 94 to 95

Business climate index seen flat at 94 in July from June.

Eurozone ECB Announcement (Thu 1415 CEST; Thu 1215 GMT; Thu 0815 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Refi Rate Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Refi Rate Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Refi Rate Level: 2.25 %

Consensus Range, Refi Rate Level: 2.25% to 2.25%

Consensus Forecast, Deposit Rate Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Deposit Rate Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Deposit Rate Level: 2.40%

Consensus Range, Deposit Rate Level: 2.40% to 2.40%

The consensus looks for no rate change but markets will watch closely for any guidance.

Canada Retail Sales for May (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 1.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: 1.0% to 1.3%

The consensus agrees with the Statistics Canada preliminary estimate that sees sales up 1.0 percent in May after a 0.5 percent increase in April.

US Jobless Claims for Week of July 18 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 214K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 205K to 222K

The consensus looks for claims up 6K at 214K in the latest week after falling 8K to 208K last week. The 4-week moving average was 214.25K last week.

Eurozone EC Consumer Confidence Flash for July (Thu 1600 CEST; Thu 1400 GMT; Thu 1000 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -17.2

Consensus Range, Index: -18.6 to -16.0

Confidence seen at minus 17. 2 in July.

Friday

Japan CPI for June (Fri 0830 JST; Fri 2330 GMT; Fri 1930 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food - Y/Y: 1.5% to 1.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 1.7%

Consensus Range, Ex-Fresh Food & Energy - Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.9%

Japans core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, is expected to accelerate for the first time in eight months, reflecting the trend in Tokyo, which is a leading indicator of the nationwide data.

Tokyo CPI, announced on June 26, picked up in June as the year-on-year increase in processed food prices continued to moderate and the decline in gasoline prices narrowed compared with June 2025, when fuel cost increases eased.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed international oil and other commodity prices higher. The ongoing weakness of the yen against the dollar raised import costs and added upward pressure on domestic prices.

Still, the three key readings of the nationwide CPI are expected to remain below the Bank of Japans 2% inflation target for a third consecutive month in June, as slower food price increases and government measures, including subsidies for gasoline, continue to weigh on consumer prices.

The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is expected to remain below the 2% inflation target for the fifth consecutive month, rising 1.6% on the year in June after increasing 1.4% in both May and April. The overall CPI is seen rising 1.6% after increasing 1.5% in May. Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, is expected to rise 1.7% in June after increasing 1.8% in May.

UK Retail Sales for June (Fri 0700 BST; Fri 0600 GMT;; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.0% to 3.3%

Sales growth expected to recede to 2.0 percent on year in June from 3.2 percent on year in May.

Germany GfK Consumer Climate for August (Fri 0800 CEST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: -28.5

Consensus Range, Index: -30.0 to -28.0

The index is expected up slightly at minus 28.5 in August from minus 29.2 in July.

Germany PMI Composite Flash for July (Fri 0930 CET; Fri 0730 GMT; Fri 0330 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 50.0

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 48.7 to 50.8

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 50.6

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.2 to 50.7

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 49.3

Consensus Range, Services Index: 49.0 to 50.8

Slightly stronger readings expected in July with the composite flash up at 50.0 from 49.5 in the June final.

Eurozone PMI Composite Flash for July (Fri 1000 CET; Fri 0800 GMT; Fri 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 50.1

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 49.5 to 50.3

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 51.5

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 51.0 to 51.7

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 49.8

Consensus Range, Services Index: 49.4 to 50.0

The composite flash is expected almost flat at 50.1 in July from 50.0 in the June final.

UK PMI Composite Flash for July (Fri 0930 BST; Fri 0830 GMT; Fri 0430 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 49.7

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 49.7 to 50.4

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 52.0

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 52.0 to 52.0

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 49.4

Consensus Range, Services Index: 49.3 to 50.0

The composite flash is expected marginally in contraction at 49.7 in July, up from 49.3 in the June final.

US PMI Composite Flash for July (Fri 0945 EST; Fri 1345 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 54.3

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 51.5 to 55.5

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.2

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.0 to 51.5

Manufacturing seen up at 54.3 in the July flash from 53.9 in the June final. Services expected unchanged at 51.2.

US New Home Sales for June (Fri 1000 EDT; Fri 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 610K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 584K to 630K

Sales seen up from the bottom at 610K in June from a soft 580K in May.