The Week Ahead: Highlights

Asia-Pacific Preview

Purchasing Managers Business Activity Reports in Focus

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

The main focus of Asia-Pacific data in the week ahead will be the monthly PMI surveys for the region. July surveys showed the impact of disruption to access through the Strait of Hormuz throughout the month, and this will likely again be evident in the August surveys. Strong AI-related demand, however, has supported activity and sentiment across the region and should again be reflected in the PMI surveys. South Korea trade data for August should also show this impact, with less timely July industrial production and retail sales data also scheduled for release.

Another key event will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision. The RBNZs last policy meeting was in early July, when officials increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points from 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent. That was the first increase in the policy rate since 2023, with officials citing the impact of higher fuel prices on the inflation outlook and advising that some further reduction in monetary stimulus was likely to be required to return inflation to its target range of 1 percent to 3 percent. Inflation data published last month after that meeting showed an increase from 3.1 percent in the three months to March to 4.1 percent in the three months to June. This suggests another hike to 2.75 percent will be strongly considered next week.

Australia will report quarterly GDP and monthly trade data. GDP growth slowed sharply in the three months to March, largely reflecting the immediate impact of the Iran conflict, and subdued conditions are expected to have persisted in the three months to June. The initial impact of rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February and March may also weigh on growth in the quarter to some extent, with officials earlier this month judging that the economy is now slowing as expected.

India will also report GDP data. At the Reserve Bank of Indias most recent policy meeting, held earlier this month, officials left policy rates on hold. Officials again noted the uncertainty associated with the Iran conflict but expressed confidence in the resilience of domestic economic activity.

US Preview

Employment Data Up Next

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

The August 31 week is heading into the unofficial end of summer with the Labor Day weekend (September 5-7). This observance falls a little later than usual and is likely to cause some minor mismatches in seasonal adjustment factors for spending and employment.

The monthly employment report for August at 8:30 ET on Friday, September 4 comes after a decline of 23,000 in July which included substantial payroll drops of 19,400 in retail trade, 14,000 in financial activities, 40,000 in leisure and hospitality, and 49,600 in local government education.

July reflected widespread closure in the retail sector as some major chains closed underperforming locations. The decline in local education may be due to the timing of the start and end of local school years. With Labor Day later than usual, some workers may have been off payrolls in July but will return in August. Falling payrolls in the financial sector could be in part from softness in the housing market and/or AI moving further into customer service jobs. With high gasoline prices and other hikes eating up consumer disposable income, many households were traveling less in the summer months. Temporary workers brought on in anticipation of the vacation period may have been laid off.

August could well see a rebound in education hiring, but elsewhere hiring probably will remain restricted to a few narrow sectors hungry for skilled workers like healthcare and specialty construction trades. Most businesses will try to hold on to their present workforce. Labor demand remains limited but so does the supply of qualified job applicants.

The August employment report typically sees nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, but nearly as often is revised upward in the September report. August can be difficult to survey with respondents vacation schedules. However, this is the last employment situation the FOMC will have when it meets on September 15-16.

On August 28, the BLS released its March 2026 preliminary benchmark revision for nonfarm payrolls. This year the expected annual revision is down 79,000, a much smaller revision than in the past few years. Also notable is that the BLS said that the preliminary benchmark revision for private payrolls is down 178,000 which means that government payrolls are expected to be revised higher. The final benchmark revision will be released with the January 2027 data in February 2027.

Also look for annual revision when the ADP national employment report is released at 8:15 ET on Wednesday. This is the time of year ADP normally issues its big revisions, although there is another round of revisions after the BLS benchmark data becomes available in February.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

Japan Industrial Production for July (Mon 0850 JST; Sun 2350 GMT; Sun 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.4% to 1.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.6% to 5.4%

Japan Retail Sales for July (Mon 0850 JST; Sun 2350 GMT; Sun 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 1.7%

Consensus Range, M/M: 1.6% to 1.8%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.3% to 3.4%

China CFLP Composite PMI for August (Mon 0930 CST; Mon 0130 GMT; Sun 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Index: 49.5

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Index: 49.4 to 49.9

Consensus Forecast, Non-Manufacturing Index: 49.6

Consensus Range, Non-Manufacturing Index: 49.4 to 50.4

Manufacturing PMI expected to edge up but remain in modest contraction at 49.5 in August versus 49.2 in July. Services seen at similar 49.6 versus 49.0.

Germany CPI for August (Mon 1400 CEST; Mon 1200 GMT; Mon 0800 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.9% to 3.1%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.2%

CPI expected to show a more normal 0.3 percent increase on the month in the preliminary August reading after rising 0.8 percent in July as the month to month energy cost spike subsides. Year on year is seen at 3.0 percent in August versus 2.8 percent in July.

India GDP for Second Quarter (Mon 1730 IST; Mon 1200 GMT; Mon 0800 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 7.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 7.2% to 7.5%

The consensus looks for growth at 7.25 percent on year in Q2, down from 7.8 percent in Q1.

US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August (Mon 1030 EDT; Mon 1430 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, General Activity Index: 1.3

Consensus Range, General Activity Index: 0.7 to 1.6

The index is seen unchanged at 1.3, suggesting relatively flat business activity from July.

Tuesday

China PMI Manufacturing for August (Tue 0945 CST; Tue 0145 GMT; Mon 2045 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.0

Consensus Range, Index: 50.7 to 51.4

Index expected almost flat at 51.0 from 50.9 in July.

Germany Retail Sales for July (Tue 0800 CEST; Tue 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.4% to 0.5%

The consensus looks for a rebound of 0.5 percent on the month in July after a nasty 1.1 percent drop in June.

France PMI Manufacturing Final for August (Tue 0950 CEST; Tue 0670 GMT; Tue 0350 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.5

Consensus Range, Index: 51.5 to 51.5

The consensus sees the manufacturing PMI unrevised from the flash at 51.5 in the August final, up from 49.8 in the July final.

Germany PMI Manufacturing Final for August (Tue 0955 CEST; Tue 0755 GMT; Tue 0355 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 54.1

Consensus Range, Index: 54.1 to 54.1

The consensus sees the manufacturing PMI unrevised from the flash at a robust 54.1 in the August final, up from 52.2 in the July final.

Italy GDP for Second Quarter (Tue 1000 CEST; Tue 0800 GMT; Tue 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.2%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.0% to 1.0%

No revision expected in the final report for Q2 with gains of 0.2 percent on quarter and 1.0 percent on year.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Final for August (Tue 1000 CEST; Tue 0800 GMT; Tue 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 52.8

Consensus Range, Index: 52.8 to 52.8

The consensus sees the PMI unrevised from the flash at 52.8 in the August final, up from 51.9 in the July final. Suggests modest expansion improving in August.

UK PMI Manufacturing Final for August (Tue 0930 BST; Tue 0830 GMT; Tue 0430 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 51.5

Consensus Range, Index: 51.5 to 51.5

The consensus sees the PMI unrevised from the flash at 51.5 in the August final, not much changed from 51.9 in the July final.

Eurozone HICP Flash for August (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 3.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 3.1% to 3.3%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.5%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.6%

HICP expected up at 3.2 percent on year in the August flash versus 2.9 percent in the July final. Narrow core expected flat at 2.5 percent, somewhat reassuring but not enough to assuage the ECB.

Italy CPI for August (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 3.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 3.1% to 3.3%

HICP expected at 3.2 percent on year in August versus 2.9 percent in July.

Eurozone Unemployment Rate for July (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Rate: 6.3%

Consensus Range, Rate: 6.2% to 6.4%

The rate is expected flat again at 6.3 percent.

Brazil GDP for Second Quarter (Tue 0900 BRT; Tue 1200 GMT; Tue 0800 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.2% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.8%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.5% to 1.8%

Growth expected to slow to 0.3 percent on quarter in Q2 from 1.1 percent in Q1.

US PMI Manufacturing Final for August (Tue 0945 EDT; Tue 1345 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 53.2

Consensus Range, Index: 53.2 to 55.0

No revision expected from the flash at 53.2 for the August final, not far off 53.9 in July.

US ISM Manufacturing Index for August (Tue 0945 EDT; Tue 1345 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 55.2

Consensus Range, Index: 54.8 to 57.3

ISM expected at 55.2 in August, another strong reading after 55.6 in July.

US Construction Spending for July (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to 0.6%

Another marginal 0.1 percent increase is the call for July.

US JOLTS for July (Tue 1000 EDT; Tue 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Job Openings: 7.35 M

Consensus Range, Job Openings: 7.15 M to 7.45 M

The consensus sees job openings pretty steady at a 7.35 million rate versus 7.359 million in June.

Wednesday

South Korea CPI for August (Wed 0800 KST; Tue 2300 GMT; Tue 1900 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.8% to 3.2%

CPI expected up 0.2 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on year in August after a decline of 0.2 percent on month and an increase of 2.8 percent on year in July.

Australia GDP for Second Quarter (Wed 1130 AEST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Q/Q: 0.0% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.9%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.9%

The economy is showing it can keep growing despite high rates and energy price shocks with a decent 0.4 percent rise expected in Q2 from Q1.

New Zealand RBNZ Announcement (Wed 1400 NZDT; Wed 0100 GMT; Tue 2200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 25 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 25 bp to 25 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 2.75%

Consensus Range, Level: 2.75% to 2.75%

Forecasters expect a 25 bp move in the OCR following up on the RBNZ guidance after it raised rates in July when it said some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required.

US Motor Vehicle Sales for August (Any Time)

Consensus Forecast, Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate: 16.3 M

Consensus Range, Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate: 16.0 M to 16.4 M

Sales are expected flat at 16.3 million unit rate in August from July.

US ADP Employment Report for August (Wed 0815 EDT; Wed 1215 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 48K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 30K to 49K

Private payrolls expected up by a moderate 48K in August, pretty similar to 44K in July.

Canada Bank of Canada Announcement (Wed 0945 EDT; Wed 1245 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Change: 0 bp

Consensus Range, Change: 0 bp to 0 bp

Consensus Forecast, Level: 2.25%

Consensus Range, Level: 2.25% to 2.25%

The BOC is expected on hold again.

US Factory Orders for July (Wed 1000 EDT; Wed 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.1% to 0.7%

Orders expected up a decent 0.5 percent on the month.

Thursday

Australia International Trade in Goods for July (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: A$1.9 B

Consensus Range, Balance: A$0.0 B to A$3.7 B

The surplus expected to hold pretty steady at A$1.9 billion.

France PMI Composite Final for August (Thu 0850 CEST; Thu 0650 GMT; Thu 0250 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 48.4

Consensus Range, Services Index: 48.4 to 48.6

Forecasters see the final services PMI at 48.4 versus 48.8 in the flash for August and 49.6 in July.

Switzerland GDP for Second Quarter (Thu 0900 CEST; Thu 0700 GMT; Thu 0300 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Q/Q-Adjusted: 1.5%

Consensus Range, Q/Q-Adjusted: 0.5% to 1.6%

Swiss GDP expected at a robust 1.5 percent on quarter in Q2, unchanged from the flash.

Germany PMI Composite Final for August (Thu 0955 CEST; Thu 0755 GMT; Thu 0355 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 51.0

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 51.0 to 51.0

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 48.5

Consensus Range, Services Index: 48.5 to 48.5

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 51.0 for composite and 48.5 for services.

Eurozone PMI Composite Final for August (Thu 1000 CEST; Thu 0800 GMT; Thu 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 52.1

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 52.1 to 52.1

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 51.7

Consensus Range, Services Index: 51.7 to 51.7

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 52.1 for composite and 51.7 for services.

UK PMI Composite Final for August (Thu 0930 BST; Thu 0830 GMT; Thu 0430 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Composite Index: 52.5

Consensus Range, Composite Index: 52.5 to 52.5

Consensus Forecast, Services Index: 52.8

Consensus Range, Services Index: 52.8 to 52.8

The consensus sees no revision in the final from the flash at 52.5 for composite and 52.8 for services.

Eurozone PPI for July (Thu 1100 CEST; Thu 0900 GMT; Thu 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.9%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 5.0%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 4.7% to 5.0%

A substantial 0.6 percent increase is the call for July PPI from June.

Canada Merchandise Trade for July (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: C$3.3 B

Consensus Range, Balance: C$2.2 B to C$4.2 B

The trade surplus is expected big again at C$3.3 billion in July with a boost from high energy prices.

US International Trade in Goods and Services for July (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -$75.3 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -$90.6 B to -$72.8 B

The consensus sees the deficit at $75.3 billion in July, not far off $73.3 billion in June.

US Jobless Claims for Week of August 29 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 205K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 200K to 210K

Claims are seen pretty flat at 205K from 203K in the previous week.

US Productivity and Costs for Second Quarter (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 1.4%

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Productivity - Annual Rate: 1.2% to 1.4%

Consensus Forecast, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: 1.3%

Consensus Range, Unit Labor Costs - Annual Rate: 1.3% to 1.5%

Productivity and costs both expected unrevised from the preliminary report for Q2.

US ISM Services Index for August (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 54.1

Consensus Range, Index: 52.8 to 57.1

Services seen flat at 54.1 in August from July.

Friday

Japan Household Spending for July (Fri 0830 JST; Thu 2330 GMT; Thu 1930 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 2.6%

Consensus Range, M/M: 1.9% to 3.3%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -2.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -2.8% to -0.5%

Germany Manufacturing Orders for July (Fri 0800 CEST; Fri 0600 GMT; Fri 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: -2.0% to 1.0%

Orders seen rising 0.3 percent on the month in July after a big 3.1 percent increase in June.

Eurozone Retail Sales for July (Fri 1100 CEST; Fri 0900 GMT; Fri 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

A moderate 0.3 percent increase is the call for July from June.

Canada Labour Force Survey for August (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 10K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 5K to 18K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 6.4%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 6.4% to 6.4%

Employment expected up a tiny 10K and the jobless rate flat at 6.4 percent.

US Employment Situation for August (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 55K

Consensus Range, Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M: 12K to 100K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.2%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.0% to 4.2%

Consensus Forecast, Private Payrolls - M/M: 53K

Consensus Range, Private Payrolls - M/M: 30K to 72K

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: 5K

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M: 5K to 7K

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - M/M: 0.2% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.0%

Consensus Range, Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.3%

Consensus Forecast, Average Workweek: 34.3

Consensus Range, Average Workweek: 34.3 to 34.3

Payrolls seen up a moderate 55K after a surprising 23K decline in July. The jobless rate is expected up at 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent in July.